Movies · resolved market

Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd405c18b0df642e7f06aadf359183cb8208c1ff6b3a3bca3f8206dca2eb9532e

Rebuilt 50 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,839,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,839,783 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 560 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x454c…bd22backed Yes	2c	134,437$2,821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,820.94	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+208.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes	3c	118,048$3,756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,755.75	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes	6c	102,761$6,031 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,031.43	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-63.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	2c	77,544$1,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,296.63	98	3.1%3 W · 95 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-89%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc600…e634backed Yes	6c	56,594$3,202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,201.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	54,969$2,647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,647.26	278	1.8%5 W · 273 L	-9.2wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes	2c	38,710$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$767.71	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes	3c	34,934$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$995.47	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa487…474bbacked Yes	5c	32,174$1,484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,483.71	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42ee…e6a0backed Yes	2c	30,780$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.08	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	3c	26,361$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855.29	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	22,856$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.74	145	5.5%8 W · 137 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0640…4c5cbacked Yes	4c	22,690$868 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$868.31	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x654a…ce43backed Yes	7c	22,674$1,560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,560	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbacf…0ba0backed Yes	2c	22,658$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.65	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	7cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c02…d7dcbacked Yes	6c	22,052$1,292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,291.51	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd3…bf4dbacked Yes	22c	22,020$4,844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,844.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78cd…450cbacked Yes	7c	20,743$1,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,452.21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b27…76a1backed Yes	23c	18,000$4,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,140	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c0…00ffbacked Yes	25c	17,035$4,259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,258.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d46…0b07backed Yes	2c	16,745$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	16,137$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.45	201	3.5%7 W · 194 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf903…f1e2backed Yes	2c	15,904$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.94	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes	1c	15,704$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.41	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	2c	15,096$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.12	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-83.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffe…538ebacked Yes	2c	15,059$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.96	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes	7c	14,855$1,044 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,043.88	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1823…0fa4backed Yes	2c	14,203$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f00…9f14backed Yes	3c	13,927$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x314c…6cbebacked Yes	3c	13,493$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.37	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	13,114$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.27	204	2.9%6 W · 198 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed Yes	5c	12,878$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.23	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb4…992abacked Yes	2c	12,779$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x786a…94a7backed Yes	3c	12,739$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes	4c	12,684$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$531.9	84	22.6%19 W · 65 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes	2c	12,316$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.18	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.6wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-76%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c5b…78b8backed Yes	2c	12,144$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x87e5…6444backed Yes	2c	12,013$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe054…6bc8backed Yes	3c	11,983$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68fc…551abacked Yes	8c	11,790$974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$974.11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-57.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ef…bff2backed Yes	6c	11,779$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.2	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	0c	11,665$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca54…7161backed Yes	2c	11,182$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes	4c	10,859$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.15per pick	26cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7099…1c59backed Yes	2c	10,573$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.74	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	3c	10,514$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.43	123	1.6%2 W · 121 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2d…f033backed Yes	16c	10,369$1,707 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,706.56	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbec7…32a1backed Yes	2c	10,120$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Yes	4c	10,000$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.12	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	2c	10,000$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192	65	20%13 W · 52 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes	8c	9,796$759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$758.62	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf878…2b50backed Yes	2c	9,093$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes	6c	9,003$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.25	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes	4c	8,778$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.45	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9faa…3776backed Yes	2c	8,750$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.73	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfb…8fc8backed Yes	1c	8,542$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes	5c	8,429$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.34	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	23cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadf3…504fbacked Yes	6c	8,093$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.43	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdf8…f7b4backed Yes	2c	7,627$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.3	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f54…e40abacked Yes	2c	7,453$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f5…d3fcbacked Yes	0c	7,278$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes	1c	7,209$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.32	79	31.6%25 W · 54 L	-3.3wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-17%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	7,106$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.87	116	4.3%5 W · 111 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	1c	7,023$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.82	194	40.2%78 W · 116 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d11…855bbacked Yes	5c	7,012$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-84.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	6,900$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.25	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd76…22febacked Yes	6c	6,695$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes	2c	6,494$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-88.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6256…797dbacked No	77c	6,400$4,928 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,472	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8614…7b0ebacked Yes	1c	6,216$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.63	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf90c…e5a3backed No	78c	6,131$4,782 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,348.82	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a38…2a21backed Yes	3c	5,941$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15f6…76d3backed No	77c	5,850$4,505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,345.5	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+29%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a6…475fbacked Yes	6c	5,834$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.73	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9645…82efbacked No	75c	5,827$4,370 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,456.75	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.49per pick	52cpaid	+145.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	5c	5,777$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.14	74	6.8%5 W · 69 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-10%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832c…2d3ebacked No	77c	5,750$4,428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,322.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.23per pick	77cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf3…286bbacked Yes	5c	5,750$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ae5…f681backed Yes	1c	5,750$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d55…45e8backed No	75c	5,701$4,276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,425.25	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68e…2809backed Yes	2c	5,648$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.36	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa607…9209backed Yes	2c	5,600$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x872e…5ef3backed No	75c	5,507$4,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,376.75	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98b8…b240backed Yes	2c	5,470$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.45	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…81febacked Yes	10c	5,410$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf185…f14cbacked Yes	2c	5,384$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cfa…5480backed No	78c	5,352$4,175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,177.44	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44f5…5b18backed Yes	2c	5,323$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16ae…dca5backed No	78c	5,304$4,137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,166.88	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…b7a7backed Yes	2c	5,248$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc7c…2efdbacked No	78c	5,233$4,082 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,151.26	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e2…ce3cbacked Yes	10c	5,200$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.99	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	6c	5,136$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.92	61	4.9%3 W · 58 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24d4…7849backed Yes	3c	5,063$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes	2c	5,000$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.21	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Yes	2c	5,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.7	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes	6c	4,973$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.53	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-89.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5df0…754cbacked Yes	2c	4,967$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	4,773$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.02	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+36.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3585…84fdbacked Yes	2c	4,741$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event