TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,852,399

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,852,399 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c456,741$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,293.9290%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes0c214,420$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.5690%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7099…1c59backed Yes1c188,679$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.84137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c117,619$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.09205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-92.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c72,316$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.73248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf58…1deabacked Yes1c65,221$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c61,412$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.991455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c48,069$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.796520%13 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes0c39,515$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.83983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c30,646$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.126917.4%12 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e80…e7a0backed Yes1c19,937$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.47100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xddba…d778backed Yes1c19,471$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12e6…d36abacked Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38ce…0430backed Yes0c16,566$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2682…5141backed Yes0c15,577$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7d…f470backed Yes0c15,503$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes0c14,462$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.85812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-83.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd6e…67cdbacked Yes0c14,214$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7943…4365backed Yes1c13,882$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x719c…c937backed Yes1c13,866$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.57425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x643c…0245backed Yes0c13,054$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf86…b19dbacked Yes0c12,750$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4580%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes0c12,500$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-42.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes0c11,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e7…3bbcbacked Yes0c10,169$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes1c10,120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.65742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc524…75a2backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes0c9,891$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes0c9,393$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4424…4cc6backed Yes1c9,106$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d4…74f8backed Yes1c9,018$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd2…7b9dbacked Yes1c8,123$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x314c…6cbebacked Yes1c7,712$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes1c7,619$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.62137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick8cpaid-89.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c7,528$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.332781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb36b…7804backed Yes0c7,402$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffe…538ebacked Yes1c7,097$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7380%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa175…037bbacked Yes1c6,902$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c7…e5dbbacked Yes1c6,902$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe75f…c8eebacked Yes1c6,902$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb424…4fd7backed Yes1c6,902$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe253…4a44backed Yes1c6,902$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa1…165fbacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x497b…717ebacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c6,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes0c6,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5b0…0753backed Yes1c5,998$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes0c5,808$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.66410%0 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9441…be7bbacked Yes1c5,677$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x874d…e507backed Yes0c5,625$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db2…4ab1backed Yes1c5,428$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8398…13f7backed Yes0c5,333$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3441…3283backed Yes0c5,100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c5,100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a38…2a21backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x650a…598fbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes0c5,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2580%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f9…aecebacked Yes0c4,980$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1680%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0e…57bebacked Yes0c4,957$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.72100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x546c…4d99backed Yes1c4,837$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c4,776$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.132013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4868…c0b2backed Yes0c4,771$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes0c4,740$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.653910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes0c4,689$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x284f…f70abacked Yes0c4,667$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed Yes0c4,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f8d…0002backed Yes0c4,400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ecf…9404backed Yes0c4,179$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c4,135$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.072042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa179…45c8backed Yes1c4,084$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbc…5238backed Yes1c4,039$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c4,008$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.07490%0 W · 49 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eda…1c80backed Yes0c4,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1360%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1601…88dbbacked Yes1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e81…b4dbbacked Yes0c3,992$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes0c3,930$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.77100%0 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc57f…b8a7backed Yes1c3,695$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9702…d016backed Yes1c3,537$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cc4…abd7backed Yes0c3,511$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x500b…17c5backed Yes0c3,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1180%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9629…b148backed Yes0c3,389$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f9e…f6c2backed Yes1c3,365$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2051…6c16backed Yes1c3,359$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a41…1dacbacked Yes0c3,110$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x925d…350abacked Yes1c3,089$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes1c3,025$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35c1…4d67backed Yes1c3,025$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7874…8d9ebacked Yes0c3,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7673…a7debacked Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3b…3d4abacked Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes0c3,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.21231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eba…82b1backed Yes1c2,896$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01fc…249fbacked Yes1c2,818$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick10cpaid+564.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c2,811$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.381164.3%5 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8252…0dc7backed Yes0c2,750$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e43…ab1ebacked Yes1c2,706$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.