Movies · resolved market
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafeb856581303e0d248192f2aed941ab52b972b2f4c249d850ee49e0b73f1e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,852,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,852,399 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 456,741$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 0c | 214,420$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…1c59backed Yes | 1c | 188,679$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.84 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 1c | 117,619$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.09 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 0c | 72,316$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.73 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf58…1deabacked Yes | 1c | 65,221$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 61,412$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 48,069$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.79 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 39,515$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 30,646$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.12 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…e7a0backed Yes | 1c | 19,937$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…d778backed Yes | 1c | 19,471$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…d36abacked Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…0430backed Yes | 0c | 16,566$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2682…5141backed Yes | 0c | 15,577$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7d…f470backed Yes | 0c | 15,503$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes | 0c | 14,462$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6e…67cdbacked Yes | 0c | 14,214$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…4365backed Yes | 1c | 13,882$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719c…c937backed Yes | 1c | 13,866$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…0245backed Yes | 0c | 13,054$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…b19dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,750$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e7…3bbcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,169$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 1c | 10,120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba9…0516backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdf…64c3backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…75a2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,891$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 0c | 9,393$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…4cc6backed Yes | 1c | 9,106$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d4…74f8backed Yes | 1c | 9,018$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd2…7b9dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,123$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…6cbebacked Yes | 1c | 7,712$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Yes | 1c | 7,619$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 7,528$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…7804backed Yes | 0c | 7,402$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffe…538ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,097$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa175…037bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,902$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…e5dbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,902$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 6,902$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…4fd7backed Yes | 1c | 6,902$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…4a44backed Yes | 1c | 6,902$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa1…165fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…717ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…0753backed Yes | 1c | 5,998$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,808$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9441…be7bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,677$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…e507backed Yes | 0c | 5,625$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…4ab1backed Yes | 1c | 5,428$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…13f7backed Yes | 0c | 5,333$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3441…3283backed Yes | 0c | 5,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a38…2a21backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x650a…598fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…1127backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…aecebacked Yes | 0c | 4,980$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0e…57bebacked Yes | 0c | 4,957$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546c…4d99backed Yes | 1c | 4,837$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 4,776$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…c0b2backed Yes | 0c | 4,771$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,740$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 0c | 4,689$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…f70abacked Yes | 0c | 4,667$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…0002backed Yes | 0c | 4,400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…9404backed Yes | 0c | 4,179$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 4,135$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…45c8backed Yes | 1c | 4,084$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…5238backed Yes | 1c | 4,039$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 4,008$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eda…1c80backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…88dbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…b4dbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,992$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…6f1ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,930$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…b8a7backed Yes | 1c | 3,695$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…d016backed Yes | 1c | 3,537$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc4…abd7backed Yes | 0c | 3,511$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…17c5backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…b148backed Yes | 0c | 3,389$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…f6c2backed Yes | 1c | 3,365$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2051…6c16backed Yes | 1c | 3,359$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…1dacbacked Yes | 0c | 3,110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x925d…350abacked Yes | 1c | 3,089$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,025$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c1…4d67backed Yes | 1c | 3,025$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7874…8d9ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…a7debacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3b…3d4abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eba…82b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,896$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01fc…249fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,818$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +564.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,811$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…0dc7backed Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…ab1ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,706$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Rental Family win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.