TailMyPicks
Market

Movies · resolved market

Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,619,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,619,768 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c1,083,430$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.4490%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes1c205,722$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.61205%1 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-92.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x529f…ffd4backed Yes0c85,922$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6550%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes0c84,868$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.74240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbba…71ccbacked Yes0c80,293$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-72.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc524…75a2backed Yes0c45,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e80…e7a0backed Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x314c…6cbebacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50310%0 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c22,806$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.826520%13 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-64.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874d…e507backed Yes0c22,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b05…e6c2backed Yes0c21,897$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.59812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-83.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b8…44c1backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205219.2%10 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e60…b440backed Yes0c19,999$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7099…1c59backed Yes1c18,333$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes0c17,590$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7740%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc6…75bfbacked Yes0c16,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c13,451$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.356222.6%14 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes0c12,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0e…57bebacked Yes0c12,333$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes0c12,221$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.88248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c10,093$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.091455.5%8 W · 137 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-67.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e02…3cabbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf4b…c813backed Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf58…1deabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x643c…0245backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba9…0516backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x640a…14fabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33ce…fcc0backed Yes0c10,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d6…ba7ebacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3b…3d4abacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bdf…64c3backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes0c10,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c5…1127backed Yes0c9,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9629…b148backed Yes0c8,616$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes0c8,555$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1170%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d9…b824backed Yes0c8,360$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x469c…309bbacked Yes1c8,333$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27d0…c673backed Yes0c8,318$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dfa…b205backed Yes0c7,900$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.160%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fe…7061backed Yes0c7,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.560%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8d…0002backed Yes0c7,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1690%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a2…169bbacked Yes0c7,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a38…2a21backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4067…845ebacked Yes1c6,600$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x305b…b691backed Yes0c6,524$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67fa…6198backed Yes0c6,490$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a62…8b90backed Yes0c6,298$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500b…17c5backed Yes0c6,100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.880%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eda…1c80backed Yes0c6,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1460%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes0c5,748$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.052781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf94f…0cc8backed Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0851…d6ccbacked Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3441…3283backed Yes0c5,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1380%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873e…4ef4backed Yes0c5,200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f86…5f22backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d11…855bbacked Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-84.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49f9…f3adbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1847…d94abacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882f…5967backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c21…adafbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f9…aecebacked Yes0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c48…052cbacked Yes0c4,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb4…7afabacked Yes0c4,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes0c3,974$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.272524%6 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+127.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes0c3,853$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.56520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-73.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x932f…7bffbacked Yes1c3,299$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2135…ec29backed Yes0c3,091$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6def…7096backed Yes0c3,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-85.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1722…3104backed Yes0c2,796$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fec…9f88backed Yes0c2,628$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d8d1backed Yes1c2,536$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae23…142ebacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x892f…97bcbacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d0…f381backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3762…5107backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x327e…adb3backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb61…6032backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e4…2d6abacked Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…b38ebacked Yes1c1,559$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.