TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,056,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$186,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,056,888 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c21,000$42 inLost-$42504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c19,942$20 inLost-$19.94352.9%1 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-94.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa106…cc08backed Yes1c17,149$103 inLost-$102.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x870c…5806backed Yes0c14,946$49 inLost-$48.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes0c13,956$54 inLost-$53.56290%0 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2d0…6242backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost-$39.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85f8…0deebacked Yes1c7,592$38 inLost-$37.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes1c3,100$22 inLost-$21.522030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x59f7…bf7fbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…53bebacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost-$1250%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Yes1c2,976$15 inLost-$14.881827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa72…c7cbbacked Yes1c2,589$20 inLost-$19.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea79…3a8fbacked Yes1c2,173$13 inLost-$13.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe053…1380backed Yes1c2,122$14 inLost-$14.0720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb92d…15cabacked Yes1c1,997$10 inLost-$10.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d33…a75ebacked Yes1c1,886$10 inLost-$10.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72b7…9849backed Yes1c1,835$10 inLost-$10.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ee…7d7fbacked Yes1c1,817$13 inLost-$13.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ac…b618backed Yes1c1,364$13 inLost-$13.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes1c1,200$12 inLost-$11.782737%10 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35cb…84d3backed Yes1c1,049$10 inLost-$10.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.