TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Wicked: For Good win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$655,564
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$166,111

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $655,564 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c28,626$226 inLost-$225.72258%2 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c20,942$42 inLost-$41.88504%2 W · 48 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c13,535$14 inLost-$13.82352.9%1 W · 34 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-94.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf3…d72cbacked Yes2c7,352$166 inLost-$165.61425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-68.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce4…5c0ebacked Yes1c4,793$43 inLost-$43.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cbe…e741backed Yes2c2,406$45 inLost-$4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14c1…83ecbacked Yes1c1,830$11 inLost-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b2c…ff54backed Yes1c1,830$11 inLost-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da7…bc18backed Yes1c1,830$11 inLost-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa640…1a2cbacked Yes1c1,830$11 inLost-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41a9…d494backed Yes1c1,830$11 inLost-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x092f…f864backed Yes1c1,830$11 inLost-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87d1…b1d4backed Yes1c1,810$12 inLost-$11.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes1c1,726$16 inLost-$15.5417821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,646$24 inLost-$24.431,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x81ab…fd92backed Yes2c1,620$29 inLost-$29.1370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…53bebacked Yes1c1,200$14 inLost-$14.450%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x241b…a1eabacked Yes2c1,057$25 inLost-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78e4…62cabacked Yes2c1,032$18 inLost-$17.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes1c1,013$14 inLost-$14.1950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b84…b7d0backed Yes1c948.58$11 inLost-$11.121612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-69%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x519a…1551backed Yes3c918.88$25 inLost-$252030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes2c513.25$11 inLost-$11.296331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.