TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0db2…4ab1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+134.7%+$282.91
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$101.49
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$85.26
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+67%+$66.96
Will Meta have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+123.5%+$70.19
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+87.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ravens vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces additional funding cuts to Harvard before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.