TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,415 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x23db…cf1cbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes66c6,241$4,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.516439.1%25 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No29c3,140$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.749535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x549c…ad91backed Yes41c2,665$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.091758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes33c2,489$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,667.8321531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes14c2,236$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.527140.8%29 W · 42 L+7.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+112.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No41c1,946$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.84860.4%29 W · 19 L+9.6wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+42.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe8db…9403backed No1c1,675$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked No33c1,444$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.376535.4%23 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-40.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c1,365$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.8864339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes36c1,197$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.512629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No34c1,011$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.4635921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No66c1,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66051138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked No64c935.55$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.753256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+65.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c927.32$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.822217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes35c882.35$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.245913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x449c…879ebacked Yes35c858.03$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.0913650%68 W · 68 L+9.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc30c…6509backed No70c854.14$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.032259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+90%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No65c798.92$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.3117737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01f5…5cfbbacked Yes35c686.24$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.69728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c660.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.131,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d5…bcc5backed Yes37c550$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No63c520.16$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3264833.3%16 W · 32 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2501…7e28backed Yes36c500$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3202475%18 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5b2…26b9backed No65c453.74$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.081050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No67c434.3$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.97254.2%39 W · 33 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-20.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No34c415$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.320243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes18c410$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33736626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa957…318bbacked Yes35c400$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2604100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+90.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No6c391$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4650130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes11c372.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.734141.5%17 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No6c347.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0211818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes33c331.98$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.425123.5%12 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes37c325.95$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.9527233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd47…805abacked Yes14c304.67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.83666.7%24 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes10c300$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27021525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19228734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc1f4…dd7cbacked Yes33c299$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.33850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes72c296.72$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.692339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa81d…7447backed Yes10c290.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.91560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+153.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes26c277$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.9244224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba2d…2f32backed No43c249.11$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.37560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+34%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No16c249.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.33721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes37c240$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.21428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No42c236$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.128040%32 W · 48 L+11.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+83.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbecc…f560backed No43c232.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013430.6%41 W · 93 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes11c227.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7842311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f6f…ece6backed Yes36c215.94$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0f…91ecbacked Yes36c210$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.42100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+118.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eeb…a4d1backed No65c201$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes9c200$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1827042.9%30 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked No64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12810747.7%51 W · 56 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7071…91dfbacked Yes35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1283759.5%22 W · 15 L+7.9wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3437…f8f3backed Yes9c200$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18215953.5%85 W · 74 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf809…5f9fbacked Yes35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+70.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes37c194$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2224234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes39c178.73$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5677636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cad…b739backed Yes36c169.89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+179.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes11c169.72$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.394630.4%14 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2838…32bbbacked Yes36c163.92$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.91580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+125.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4a9…4d64backed Yes36c160.96$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.011060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+55.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b02…b95fbacked No64c160$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.41233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-52.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x91db…6fb2backed No64c153.07$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.961844.4%8 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x040b…bbc5backed Yes37c150$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc13…9fcebacked No63c149.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes32c149.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.993253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5be4…3128backed Yes36c140.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.692055%11 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe102…71dfbacked Yes31c139$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.912832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd590…5eeebacked Yes36c138.89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.893630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-29.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed No64c137.76$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.17922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.37per pick59cpaid-68%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes76c136.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3112650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd12a…fb09backed Yes10c134.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.08837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+71.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf95d…e957backed Yes40c129.36$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b95…af88backed Yes8c125$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+72.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2363…2105backed Yes12c125$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+177.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes79c124.39$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2548923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb5…b230backed No63c120$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked No77c117$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.572860.7%17 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbae8…823abacked Yes34c116.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+45.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes30c110.38$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.1767841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5ad…39c6backed Yes35c110$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.52751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes15c108.42$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.1858927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No63c107.88$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9626138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aca…61fdbacked No67c103.61$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.01650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9e…8a70backed Yes36c101.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.783040%12 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+130.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2455…a70fbacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902231.8%7 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick23cpaid-2.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23c2…ea58backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed Yes34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669524.2%23 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7995…55d6backed Yes36c94.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.793225%8 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-50.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes15c94.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7249023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdaa…43eabacked No64c94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.162437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed Yes13c92.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.310321.4%22 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-51.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c3…b054backed Yes35c92.05$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9269…5731backed Yes37c90.16$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.81758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x202e…ef06backed Yes36c90.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c5…b169backed No45c88.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8504…f7e3backed No63c87.04$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7035…0398backed Yes38c85$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.