TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe102…71df

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
150
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Earnings at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.35
Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.97
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.87
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.2%+$34.68
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,561Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$390.31
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$444.02
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,813Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$502.42
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.14
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$313Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$127.95
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.27
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.62
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.79
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.2
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$95.91
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$63.12
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.19
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$133
S&P 500 breaks its losing streak this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$37.83
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$325.55
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$249.14
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$722Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$722
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$296.44
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$514Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+53.1%+$273.34
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.76
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.52
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.86
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$350.13
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.27
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$693Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$206.96
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.74
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.99
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$415.95
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$619Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$968.86
Ukraine hits Moscow by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.66
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$335.78
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.82
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.49
All 14 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$212
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$82.5
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffsbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.1
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.5
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.42
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winnerbacked BetBoom Team · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$127.5
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stagebacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$130
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerbacked PARIVISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$173Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$77.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+105.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,293.36
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.93
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.94
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+300%+$270.96
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$2,707Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$890.51
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$377.15
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+378%+$355.04
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$164.1
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$79.1
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.83
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.85
Will John Braun advance to the general election for WA-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.97
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+614.3%+$111.65
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.81
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$356.32
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$15.61
Will Christina Bohannan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.92
Will Julie Johnson be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.28
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$527Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$203.54
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$555Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+59.2%+$328.78
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$21.5
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$76.04
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$36.87
Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.78
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$66.71
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.43
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.7%+$17.7
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+257.1%+$109
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$109.93
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,540Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,539.99
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$719Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$718.57
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,401Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$2,499
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,488Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,488.38
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$567Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$567.23
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,842Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,842
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Iowa Hawkeyes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,274Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,274
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked VCU Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$170
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5)backed Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$148.3
Missouri Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanesbacked Miami Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$581Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$286.08
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22.58
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$29.44
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$537.83
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.09
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.43
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$88.92
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of March 30 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.06
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11.33
All 8 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
IPO — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,589Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$1,721.93
Hornets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$68.39
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.37
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Earnings — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+38.9%+$109.31
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 19 above $240?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$527Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+35.1%+$184.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.23
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2backed Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+61.8%+$90.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$25.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stefon Diggs arrested by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.