Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd823132bd9f4b569d000f199b87c075b550fd898485c7f48c76039b8e257c58e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $194,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 143 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 27c | 22,002$6,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,049.16 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 77c | 20,755$16,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,725.82 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 27c | 14,477$3,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,927.71 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…90dabacked No | 74c | 11,049$8,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,921.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 29c | 10,842$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.74 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…4876backed No | 70c | 10,755$7,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,225.81 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 30c | 9,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…519ebacked No | 71c | 8,099$5,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.59 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.97 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e6…4f99backed No | 79c | 3,344$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed Yes | 28c | 3,142$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 11c | 3,057$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.42 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 71c | 2,769$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.15 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 76c | 2,436$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.98 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 79c | 2,004$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.27 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…ea35backed Yes | 26c | 1,922$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14bc…3904backed Yes | 1c | 1,775$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…a1a3backed Yes | 9c | 1,720$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…586abacked No | 72c | 1,389$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.89 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…a2a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 1,211$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.86 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 19c | 1,037$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.54 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 75c | 933.33$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 12c | 836.73$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.37 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…b3fcbacked No | 75c | 670.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…4659backed Yes | 16c | 569.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 79c | 533.09$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.31 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 512.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 505.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…46d0backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 27c | 500$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b1…da36backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 27c | 448.15$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 76c | 420.66$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…e203backed No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 26c | 400$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3947…6c1ebacked Yes | 26c | 377.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56af…4be6backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 75c | 333.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 72c | 333.33$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Yes | 26c | 327.31$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 321.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 77c | 302.58$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…7d27backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd992…96c0backed Yes | 30c | 285.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 19c | 269$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 27c | 268$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…cf45backed Yes | 22c | 260$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 258.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…6c69backed Yes | 22c | 230$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 28c | 225.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed No | 73c | 220.55$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f7…8917backed No | 78c | 214.82$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfb…a2a2backed Yes | 23c | 213$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 74c | 207.28$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 15c | 205.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7d…8a52backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…5073backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…57f2backed No | 80c | 195.63$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 78c | 191.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…340bbacked Yes | 13c | 177.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 18c | 171.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…3307backed Yes | 21c | 165.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 13c | 157.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 155$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c4…22fabacked Yes | 31c | 152.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 20c | 150.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…c47bbacked Yes | 21c | 143.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 16c | 141.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1416…f47abacked No | 77c | 139$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…3f31backed No | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…41eebacked Yes | 19c | 136.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 30c | 136$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…03b1backed No | 77c | 130.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +53%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…d7c3backed No | 77c | 130.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…e366backed Yes | 29c | 130$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ea…1043backed No | 80c | 125.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…3503backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…7e8fbacked Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…232cbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d08…0fa6backed No | 73c | 100.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.34per pick | 56cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…4096backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3262…8a46backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…a220backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 19c | 96.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.