Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10be5bb8b2f115699c67f0189cdb6db051f2a5fb4ec25b954a53c71253df8e34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 361 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 56c | 31,666$17,888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,888.45 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 50c | 23,126$11,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,654.22 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 45c | 14,279$6,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,791.77 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…f14bbacked No | 44c | 11,336$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,336.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +87%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30be…4e33backed No | 48c | 9,298$4,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,860.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 34c | 8,906$3,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,068.24 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 65c | 8,206$5,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,879.68 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 44c | 8,045$3,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,490.21 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 47c | 7,965$3,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,729.67 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 55c | 6,866$3,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.19 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…6c40backed No | 57c | 6,466$3,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,764.36 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 46c | 6,390$2,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,479.49 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 43c | 5,506$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,158.47 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked Yes | 55c | 4,959$2,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,732.44 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 55c | 3,594$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.74 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed No | 45c | 3,195$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.52 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked No | 75c | 2,994$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 53c | 2,847$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.57 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…a68abacked No | 74c | 2,715$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 10c | 2,621$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 2,595$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,178.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 35c | 2,337$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.23 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,283$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 52c | 2,000$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.6 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 36c | 1,994$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.33 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4216backed No | 66c | 1,731$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 42c | 1,697$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.77 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 12c | 1,613$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.55 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 79c | 1,370$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.17 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed No | 54c | 1,332$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.71 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…ed25backed No | 53c | 1,288$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.37 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 6c | 1,172$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 41c | 1,154$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.98 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b2…7d94backed Yes | 4c | 1,153$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100f…5157backed Yes | 9c | 1,134$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 46c | 1,093$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.65 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 41c | 1,055$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.1 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed No | 49c | 1,022$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 23c | 1,022$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.23 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed No | 39c | 956.53$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…9ff9backed Yes | 6c | 864.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…a2a1backed Yes | 3c | 859.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 31c | 841.51$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.76 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…a887backed No | 64c | 809.37$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 46c | 809.13$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.94 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 59c | 791.88$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.46 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 15c | 773$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 47c | 763.76$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.13 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 759.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…c3dfbacked Yes | 6c | 752$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d7…2718backed Yes | 6c | 750$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x178a…43f2backed Yes | 6c | 750$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…2fe8backed Yes | 6c | 749.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…4659backed Yes | 55c | 749.91$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked No | 37c | 720.54$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.74 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 4c | 716.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49e…d6ccbacked Yes | 6c | 710$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…729abacked Yes | 6c | 710$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4e…35a7backed Yes | 6c | 709.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…6997backed Yes | 6c | 700$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4151…c84bbacked Yes | 6c | 700$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 44c | 690.88$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.97 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 47c | 661.76$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.97 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…e0b0backed No | 46c | 655.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.42 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 42c | 624.22$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.45 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…4535backed No | 37c | 619.98$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 43c | 614.26$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 43c | 611.38$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.64 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 603.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…5d80backed No | 42c | 600$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 585.5$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.97 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 35c | 576.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.27 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8a…3a46backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…8f6abacked No | 36c | 548.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610a…cb39backed No | 73c | 545.13$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 38c | 541.97$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.28 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 63c | 531.45$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.81 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e6…9811backed Yes | 6c | 522$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +670%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 44c | 518.5$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.84 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 25c | 517.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed Yes | 66c | 500$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…9651backed Yes | 5c | 490$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb16…23d0backed Yes | 5c | 490$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 43c | 485.6$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.41 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 63c | 483$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.01 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…6bb8backed No | 71c | 479.27$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…e1d8backed No | 46c | 471.09$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.63 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…63b9backed No | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 39c | 441.92$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.16 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 41c | 441.29$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.17 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…6688backed Yes | 4c | 430.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e2…b2afbacked Yes | 67c | 428.3$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked Yes | 25c | 423.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 52c | 400.32$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 39c | 400.26$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 52c | 400$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 64c | 400$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 392.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 46c | 391.54$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.