Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc57328ba4f9c6dcbf986af8251d3a8a71b5909f0eb0b0be2307a8ec0f14628af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $590,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $596,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $590,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90d8…904cbacked Yes | 0c | 271,443$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 13c | 4,751$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.44 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…2b64backed Yes | 2c | 1,775$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…abc1backed Yes | 5c | 1,095$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 1,087$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed Yes | 6c | 1,068$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d8cabacked Yes | 5c | 963.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3538…6c69backed Yes | 7c | 901.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 749.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 740.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 4c | 700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a89…ff1dbacked Yes | 6c | 679.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 3c | 648.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 5c | 542.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 509.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 5c | 383.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 301.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 287.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5906…98a3backed Yes | 7c | 277.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 12c | 248.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 19c | 214.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 5c | 190.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 143.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 55c | 45.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 78c | 36.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…5695backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 67c | 16.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.