Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd66faaf74bf50d61ab2f63f9351f8086305dcbf16c1e3eab0ebfe576fce1c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $313,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $342,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $313,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1ad…8355backed Yes | 25c | 71,444$17,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,861 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cf…ce7bbacked No | 75c | 28,910$21,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,227.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…d5c8backed No | 75c | 22,030$16,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,507.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 44c | 20,716$9,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,074.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…fda4backed No | 75c | 20,504$15,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,126 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 54c | 12,954$6,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,969.01 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 37c | 12,524$4,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,661.56 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 72c | 9,263$6,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,626.58 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 62c | 8,882$5,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,352.92 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 65c | 5,566$3,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.01 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 40c | 4,403$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.42 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…6333backed Yes | 40c | 4,345$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 34c | 3,509$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.23 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 48c | 3,319$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.96 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 59c | 2,319$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.08 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 2,254$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.32 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…4659backed Yes | 25c | 2,050$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 66c | 2,047$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.3 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 5c | 1,912$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 27c | 1,744$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.75 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 66c | 1,568$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.47 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 68c | 1,563$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.29 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 69c | 1,455$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5a…747abacked Yes | 40c | 1,261$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.4 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked No | 74c | 1,117$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.67 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3765…9e3bbacked No | 69c | 1,097$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 22c | 1,090$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.13 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed No | 72c | 1,086$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.38 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 1,067$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.76 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 27c | 996.23$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.64 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 919.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed No | 70c | 900$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 18c | 882.1$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.78 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…a2a1backed Yes | 3c | 875.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed No | 62c | 868.35$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.79 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes | 39c | 833.09$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.87 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked No | 60c | 823.28$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…ce2cbacked No | 79c | 800$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 50c | 788.51$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.97 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 72c | 755.27$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.56 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 751.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…0a81backed No | 73c | 740.1$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 706.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.25 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 62c | 700$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked No | 66c | 700$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.79 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed Yes | 57c | 610.66$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.56 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefed…ca5dbacked No | 76c | 600$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 70c | 595.06$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db5…0aa7backed No | 76c | 590$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…8f6abacked No | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…b79abacked No | 71c | 559.81$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.7 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…7552backed No | 61c | 533.31$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.23 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 65c | 517.05$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.63 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 67c | 505$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.85 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…46d0backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 62c | 499.59$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.84 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 488.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 68c | 481.36$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.12 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked Yes | 33c | 476.16$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.73 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 475.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…9c0cbacked No | 77c | 474.4$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 464.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 57c | 443.97$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.07 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 64c | 437.85$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.73 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed No | 76c | 432$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9655…1b50backed No | 76c | 430$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 8c | 429.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.78 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 3c | 429.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…bc8ebacked No | 73c | 414.94$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x347f…702ebacked No | 62c | 403.23$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 14c | 400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f00…7addbacked No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 66c | 391.65$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.08 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 55c | 388.7$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.2 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 387$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 74c | 385.72$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ca…6036backed No | 76c | 380$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…0b0fbacked No | 70c | 373.55$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.55 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 71c | 370.27$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 71c | 355.3$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed No | 57c | 350$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 23c | 347.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 343.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 339.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…a517backed No | 63c | 326.81$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…9cedbacked No | 64c | 320$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 76c | 319.81$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.22 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed No | 70c | 317.41$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed No | 75c | 312.42$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…e203backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20a2…207dbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3bc…7d27backed Yes | 37c | 300$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b4…1f6ebacked Yes | 28c | 293.94$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.27per pick | 34cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed No | 63c | 291$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…a597backed Yes | 9c | 286.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +194.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 70c | 285.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49f6…a4f9backed Yes | 24c | 284.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…c3d4backed No | 60c | 281$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed No | 62c | 280$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.