TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9732…7552

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
4
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 57 out of 100; worst Commodities at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+35.4%+$54.7
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.61
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$950Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$950.2
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$995Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$995.34
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.9
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.8
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$512Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$511.99
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$392Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$391.75
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$226.68
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$777Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$260.04
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+54%+$9.92
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+216.1%+$27.86
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$27.48
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+100.3%+$340.2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+137.7%+$467.64
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+158%+$601.15
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$52.22
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.14
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+129%+$24.32
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$288Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+84%+$242.24
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+261.3%+$42.2
Will Iran strike Oman in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$34.58
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$36.11
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$29.5
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$241.69
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$12.57
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+36.6%+$76.55
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+65.1%+$210.23
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+50.5%+$118.51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.99
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$47.76
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+167.2%+$115.56
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$9.6
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.37
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$6.29
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$288.86
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.49
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+207%+$97.06
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+198.8%+$103.49
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+89.2%+$11.49
Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+43.9%+$23.14
Will Russia enter Bilytske by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$12.59
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$62.26
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$121.83
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+25.1%+$17.69
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+57.3%+$110.11
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+232.3%+$26.55
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.96
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+68.8%+$173.85
Will Russia capture Zarichne by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+26.6%+$5.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$24.82
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.