Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Zarichne by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8e4e63b7cf4e2a3b9882952813d3ca2e8a0dc13037440f4c4a3fbe11af7396
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,825
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,825 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 80c | 9,580$7,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,931.77 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 28c | 5,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…7552backed No | 2c | 2,827$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 4c | 2,530$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,902$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 1,860$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b6…3961backed No | 2c | 1,418$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 16c | 1,321$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.22 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…8d6cbacked No | 5c | 1,301$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked No | 39c | 1,250$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54dc…5a45backed No | 2c | 1,205$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…5e4ebacked No | 2c | 1,113$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 60c | 1,107$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.72 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…6f1abacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 928.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 851$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 63c | 767.46$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.21 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…acc1backed No | 3c | 678.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed No | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 31c | 471.9$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 15c | 296.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 39c | 217.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked No | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d1…efc9backed No | 39c | 52.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…e4e1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…82c8backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d62…fddabacked No | 36c | 46.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 61c | 39.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9367…028abacked No | 43c | 35.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Zarichne by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia capture Zarichne by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.