TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf6e4…5e4e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
99
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Champions League, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 54 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT345.9%2 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-72.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.71
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.71
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.11
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$150
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+163.2%+$652.63
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,791Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+574.2%+$10,282.04
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$92
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$29.53
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$350
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$252.25
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$230Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$230
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$663Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$663.47
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$230.76
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$17.45
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$135
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,371Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,370.63
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$281.6
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$145.08
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$140.91
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT2552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.17
ACF Fiorentina vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.14
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+57.5%+$199.57
AS Roma vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.88
Bologna FC 1909 vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$77.23
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$73.54
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$52.86
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.43
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$59.37
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$51.86
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+96.1%+$49
Will AS Roma win on 2026-02-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$25.58
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$99.42
Will Como 1907 vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+223.5%+$122.9
Will Torino FC win on 2026-02-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+122.2%+$195.56
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+122.2%+$222.44
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+25%+$125
Will AS Roma win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$260
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+35.1%+$140.54
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-01-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+109.1%+$327.26
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US Lecce vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$110.71
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-01-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-01-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$150.23
All 25 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jagiellonia Białystok win on 2026-02-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Celtic FC vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Panathinaikós AO vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+233.3%+$70
Will Noah FA win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+376.2%+$268.3
Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$51.75
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will KRC Genk win on 2026-02-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-01-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+204.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+129.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$104.08
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$95.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$149
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$144
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$387.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.