Serie A · resolved market
US Lecce vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb51802f4759f162b0020cac7ca91403c0a75effa8e43d1c8319c26a7ca052a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 32c | 5,298$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.31 | 205 | 44.9%92 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 67c | 4,462$2,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.62 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Under | 65c | 4,246$2,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 3,816$2,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.89 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 33c | 3,636$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…8a29backed Over | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 33c | 2,609$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 33c | 1,826$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.56 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 68c | 1,784$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.25 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 68c | 1,541$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.12 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 67c | 1,031$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.15 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Under | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 33c | 906.06$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 13c | 903.67$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…f616backed Under | 69c | 725.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 67c | 639.4$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 32c | 499.97$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.99 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 67c | 374.21$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.49 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…5e4ebacked Over | 33c | 335.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.71 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 68c | 309.31$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd885…c666backed Over | 35c | 143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Under | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 33c | 142.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 67c | 130$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 33c | 95.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 99 | 37.4%37 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 88.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Under | 68c | 65.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 68c | 64.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 35c | 63.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…932fbacked Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…3e5dbacked Under | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 33c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…dec3backed Over | 33c | 32.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Under | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Lecce vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5this page
- US Lecce vs. SS Lazio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Lecce vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5Under won
- US Lecce vs. SS Lazio: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Lecce vs. SS Lazio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.