Us Politics · resolved market
US government shutdown Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ec78527bd98a0588dd9455685b2cc82f5743140cb3a154603dc03c02b57de5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,296,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,867,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,296,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 12,977 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 9,191,341$24,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,963.55 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…c92bbacked No | 0c | 8,368,759$32,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,911 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…a667backed No | 1c | 6,949,683$44,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,170.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537c…26dabacked No | 0c | 3,045,287$6,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,975.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed No | 0c | 2,620,822$5,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,390.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…ffe2backed No | 0c | 2,449,391$5,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,794.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…2517backed No | 0c | 2,127,833$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,270.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 0c | 2,107,871$4,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,373.79 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed No | 0c | 2,070,418$4,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,780.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed No | 0c | 1,699,999$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…df89backed No | 0c | 1,519,908$3,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…fdbdbacked No | 3c | 1,351,901$43,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,435.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…ff61backed No | 1c | 1,348,774$6,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,884.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 11c | 1,217,141$134,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134,054.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9f…bc1ebacked No | 0c | 1,177,881$4,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,028 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcb…6344backed No | 0c | 1,157,136$3,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,073.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…d720backed No | 0c | 1,096,291$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…83eebacked No | 0c | 1,086,444$5,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,112.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf117…b750backed No | 1c | 1,040,869$7,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,285 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…42c5backed No | 1c | 754,741$4,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,488.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5306…ddf3backed No | 0c | 721,375$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 14c | 720,365$101,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,474.47 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 18c | 675,733$121,979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121,979.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed No | 2c | 650,000$13,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,971.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79bf…96a8backed No | 27c | 591,650$161,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161,525.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 0c | 587,849$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.85 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…5efdbacked No | 1c | 567,114$5,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,829.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 77c | 562,009$432,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129,297.88 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7c…3560backed No | 0c | 524,168$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,173.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…06d4backed No | 0c | 492,797$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…ac47backed No | 0c | 480,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 73c | 442,652$324,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117,749.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d0…af08backed No | 1c | 357,423$2,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,527.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked No | 7c | 354,308$23,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,573.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 79c | 323,541$255,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,548.14 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x839c…dcc6backed No | 1c | 314,635$3,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,983.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855f…4998backed No | 0c | 298,803$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed Yes | 71c | 297,295$210,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86,958.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…c0cebacked No | 0c | 290,582$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 75c | 277,711$209,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,256.77 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcab…e010backed No | 0c | 275,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…2c95backed No | 1c | 273,473$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…fa31backed No | 31c | 268,451$83,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83,199.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…d670backed No | 0c | 254,500$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked No | 23c | 252,660$56,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,991 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…013abacked No | 2c | 251,600$4,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,335.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3828…6118backed No | 1c | 241,782$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed No | 18c | 239,285$44,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,093.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f69…78e2backed No | 1c | 234,322$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…9932backed No | 0c | 232,451$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 75c | 220,087$166,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,940.78 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…6f68backed No | 0c | 217,663$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0025…7456backed No | 0c | 206,263$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ada2backed No | 0c | 205,756$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…dc52backed No | 0c | 204,766$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 68c | 202,756$138,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,615.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +411%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…e2e9backed No | 1c | 197,330$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked No | 1c | 190,818$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4c…7503backed No | 1c | 188,260$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a90…5d8dbacked No | 0c | 182,624$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…b0dabacked No | 0c | 181,985$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c59…ab67backed No | 0c | 176,422$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…f38fbacked No | 0c | 176,419$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 0c | 174,510$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.65 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes | 75c | 174,154$130,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,742.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3b15backed No | 0c | 174,021$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 75c | 172,766$128,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,951.64 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f5…b7e4backed No | 52c | 170,351$89,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,135.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…41f2backed No | 0c | 169,910$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…c3aabacked No | 0c | 166,765$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ce3fbacked No | 0c | 166,224$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed No | 0c | 165,467$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9756…56fdbacked No | 0c | 163,184$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b6…5dd0backed No | 0c | 163,170$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…b441backed No | 0c | 162,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e06…2afbbacked No | 0c | 162,304$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0440…a402backed No | 0c | 159,837$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 78c | 158,874$123,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,187.48 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdec…d744backed No | 0c | 153,464$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c4f2backed No | 0c | 152,500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fc…9b76backed No | 0c | 150,725$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadc8…04eebacked No | 0c | 150,666$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…5933backed Yes | 72c | 148,256$106,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,363.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…af38backed No | 0c | 148,119$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Yes | 66c | 147,545$97,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,597.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…0efbbacked No | 0c | 146,545$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…f5aebacked No | 0c | 142,500$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576f…21a9backed No | 0c | 142,000$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…4852backed No | 1c | 140,017$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb301…79ddbacked No | 1c | 137,433$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6954…9fd8backed No | 22c | 137,362$30,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,014.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777a…0e5ebacked No | 1c | 135,152$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0b…337abacked No | 0c | 133,636$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Yes | 75c | 133,000$99,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,670 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b4…dab6backed No | 0c | 132,455$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…f38abacked No | 0c | 132,272$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed Yes | 68c | 131,515$89,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,109.85 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…2992backed No | 1c | 130,376$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…87a0backed No | 25c | 129,443$32,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,826.53 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.