TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6880…5efd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: South American Leagues, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category South American Leagues at 56 out of 100; worst Australian A League at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bulls vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$4,958Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$2,669.43
Spread: Rockets (-10.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$4,208Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,208.28
Hawks vs. Pacersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,000
Spurs vs. Rockets: O/U 221.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+88.2%+$2,203.95
Spread: Hornets (-2.5)backed Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$6,352Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+104.1%+$6,611.25
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+88.7%+$2,217.08
Lakers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,946Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$4,946
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$5,553Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$5,552.71
Spread: Clippers (-2.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$947Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$947.42
Hawks vs. Grizzliesbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+108.3%+$3,250
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$3,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+85.2%+$2,896.3
Spread: Hawks (-2.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
Suns vs. 76ersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$3,600Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+98.8%+$3,555.17
Spread: Clippers (-6.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$1,680
Thunder vs. Cavaliersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+51.5%+$24.21
Nets vs. Bullsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
Spread: Bulls (-7.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,824Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$1,823.84
Pelicans vs. Rocketsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
All 19 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-01-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+88.7%+$1,596.23
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-01-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$1,800
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,345Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+70.8%+$952.68
Olympique Lyonnais vs. PAOK: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$778Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+265%+$2,060.39
Lille OSC vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$1,800
SC Braga vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
OGC Nice vs. Go Ahead Eagles: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-01-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$2,290.91
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)backed FC Porto · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$2,500
SC Freiburg vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$1,800
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,800
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$4,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$4,800
Páfos FC vs. SK Slavia Praha: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,881Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,881
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Juventus FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$1,800
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+104.1%+$1,873.47
Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+56.3%+$1,012.5
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$511Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+733.3%+$3,747.33
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$523Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+127.3%+$665.64
All 9 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-35.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+70%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+92.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+160%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19,057Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19,057.36
Will Solana dip to $100 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$5,918Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+420%+$24,855.01
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-01-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+163.2%+$2,447.37
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,766Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$1,766
All 2 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirinbacked Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$1,800
Zhejiang Lions vs. Qingdao Eaglesbacked Qingdao Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$247
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+60%+$1,080.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$800
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$5,829Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$5,829.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked Nongshim Red Force · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-01-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.