South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-01-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95460a00ae881e06ba798606b79c17812ae152118c24febbf3ffb421db986d8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,070
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,070 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6880…5efdbacked Yes | 30c | 13,882$4,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,725.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked Yes | 1c | 5,574$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,518.62 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +438.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 3,114$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.25 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 68c | 2,076$1,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.05 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb470…ba61backed Yes | 77c | 1,545$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 12c | 1,517$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.1 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 1,276$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.2 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 34c | 522.59$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.91 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 3c | 416.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 12c | 290$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.6 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 72c | 277.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 35c | 222.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…e374backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 74c | 187.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 9c | 166.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e45…c80fbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 49c | 120.19$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 71c | 107$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 68c | 80.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 73c | 78.47$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 24c | 69.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 34c | 58.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 32c | 58.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 45.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 108 | 80.6%87 W · 21 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 38.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 72c | 34.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1190…2f25backed Yes | 69c | 27.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf1…6adcbacked Yes | 74c | 22.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 72c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Lanús win on 2026-01-23?this page
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?No won
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-01-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.