Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97239c353df706a654e0144e05f05b3cd4938ecc6b165b231cdc0e2dcdbc44e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6880…5efdbacked Under | 48c | 5,000$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 50c | 4,546$2,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 54c | 1,504$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.44 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 1,256$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.07 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Under | 54c | 1,028$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811e…8733backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Under | 50c | 822.22$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.11 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 67c | 799.99$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed Over | 74c | 698.08$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 35c | 480.81$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.99 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 48c | 452.6$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.3 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 33c | 363.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Under | 50c | 350$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 38c | 315.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 6c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 71c | 282.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 66c | 272.73$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 44c | 256.2$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.53 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Under | 47c | 249.53$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 228.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 45c | 223.93$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 46c | 215.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Under | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a7b0backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…c731backed Under | 31c | 180$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 50c | 161.12$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 47c | 148.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Over | 51c | 143.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 39c | 123.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 50c | 95.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 40c | 94.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…c8dcbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…b50ebacked Over | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…405fbacked Over | 69c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 35c | 66.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 51c | 61.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 46c | 57.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Under | 50c | 50.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 58c | 49.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 53c | 46.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…c864backed Under | 39c | 44.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed Under | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 53c | 42.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd10…f782backed Under | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Under | 52c | 37.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 61c | 37.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 39c | 34.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 46c | 33.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Over | 51c | 32.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Over | 50c | 28.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…42fbbacked Over | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Over | 61c | 24.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…2765backed Over | 53c | 19.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Over | 70c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.