Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x703e92376a025b760efd17bc7744bb17a1f3ff1eae21a9651420e32b14ed8b9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Under | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 73c | 740.76$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.17 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 28c | 596.24$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.89 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 28c | 540$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 80c | 437.5$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 26c | 399.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 74c | 338.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Under | 35c | 335.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…3ff1backed Over | 73c | 315$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…cf4fbacked Under | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 275.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 74c | 136.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 74c | 135.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 74c | 135.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed Under | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…2050backed Under | 31c | 90.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 23c | 78.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Under | 36c | 61.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 75c | 51.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 74c | 51.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 61c | 45.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c81backed Over | 66c | 45.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 73c | 40.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…0103backed Under | 41c | 28.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 25.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Over | 68c | 22.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1f27backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…2bd8backed Over | 66c | 19.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Over | 68c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.