Australian A League · resolved market
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7c7f7f20c037b15a2b389d0f5a284d17d790ab2e22dfbda4df2e389022302df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 5,555$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,934.39 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 15c | 3,322$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,822.89 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 54c | 1,909$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Under | 55c | 1,264$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 23c | 1,114$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.2 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 41c | 1,031$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.24 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee2…8a14backed Under | 70c | 1,006$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 79c | 999.98$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.98 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 57c | 872.16$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.85 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 16c | 519.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.18 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Over | 21c | 500$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 494.03$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.66 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 64c | 486$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.04 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Over | 32c | 393.81$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Under | 79c | 389.98$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 21c | 341$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.52 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 30c | 276.45$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.5 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 15c | 273.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.27 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 224.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.42 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 70c | 219.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 78c | 208$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.58 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 65c | 190$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 17c | 147.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.62 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Over | 17c | 114.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked Under | 68c | 106$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 52c | 96.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 59c | 89.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 79c | 86$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 20c | 85.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 30c | 84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 15c | 80.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 50c | 67.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Over | 46c | 65.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 30c | 64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Under | 63c | 61.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 35c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf76d…29d8backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…00eabacked Under | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c15…1b4ebacked Under | 74c | 36.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 71c | 35.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 61c | 17.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.