TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Heat

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heatof Bulls, Heat
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,613,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,651,354

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,613,938 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 739 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d10…e270backed Bulls34c115,943$39,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,452.645139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Heat67c100,000$67,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,999.961,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…414dbacked Bulls39c85,373$33,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,295.3951844.4%230 W · 288 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Heat63c62,057$38,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,066.341,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Bulls37c54,415$20,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,114.9636359.8%217 W · 146 L+23.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…88b4backed Bulls35c49,463$17,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,152.7722453.1%119 W · 105 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat64c46,124$29,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,592.084,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls24c43,227$10,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,192.842,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bulls36c37,224$13,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,407.922,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Bulls35c31,761$10,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,998.6539842.5%169 W · 229 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bulls33c30,000$9,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,899.9951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…b212backed Bulls33c27,774$9,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,165.281844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Bulls39c25,000$9,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,866.1777348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Heat61c25,000$15,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,75019653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat63c23,223$14,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,516.819,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac3c…d637backed Bulls35c21,700$7,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5952128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x484a…faf1backed Heat65c21,700$14,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5951080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Bulls1c20,121$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.2667911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Heat63c16,136$10,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,981.7929245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Heat63c16,134$10,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,930.942,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbab7…bc7cbacked Heat60c16,000$9,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4549054.4%49 W · 41 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c9…cd97backed Bulls40c16,000$6,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,453.978640.7%35 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Heat64c15,185$9,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,466.4472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Heat72c12,179$8,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,387.061,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Bulls35c11,531$4,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,035.821,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Heat65c11,480$7,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,070.4116039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Bulls33c10,808$3,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,566.642,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90bf…99ebbacked Heat64c10,563$6,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,761.737353.4%39 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Heat66c10,350$6,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,557.628643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfce1…9ce7backed Heat59c10,000$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,10035450.8%180 W · 174 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Bulls35c10,000$3,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,54535547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked Heat65c9,628$6,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,369.717653.9%41 W · 35 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Bulls41c9,449$3,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,917.291050.9%463 W · 447 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…f7e2backed Heat61c8,196$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,196.4119136.1%69 W · 122 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Bulls38c7,801$2,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,963.555346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Heat61c7,711$4,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,007.4840350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6880…5efdbacked Heat65c7,627$4,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,669.431942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bulls34c7,474$2,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,541.281,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf26…39a6backed Heat63c7,357$4,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,721.953351.5%17 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Heat68c7,346$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,355.395,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb8e…ef1abacked Heat58c7,229$4,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.771457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Heat62c6,976$4,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.72,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Heat66c6,889$4,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,361.7648956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Heat62c5,864$3,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,225.3781529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Bulls36c5,857$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,100.0117436.2%63 W · 111 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Heat77c5,438$4,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.484,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Bulls19c5,263$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Bulls1c5,207$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.924573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Bulls10c5,150$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Heat67c5,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Heat66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,70071547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Bulls33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d2…4c2cbacked Heat60c5,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00017454%94 W · 80 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b95fbacked Bulls39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9501050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x769c…5c05backed Bulls38c4,942$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.965354.7%29 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7635…63f6backed Bulls39c4,913$1,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,916.0621440.7%87 W · 127 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Heat65c4,613$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612.6320849.5%103 W · 105 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Bulls37c4,591$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.7136950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Heat65c4,553$2,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.3937557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdac2…f772backed Heat61c4,503$2,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.171457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Heat58c4,496$2,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.4662347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c0d…a667backed Bulls39c4,495$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.051369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Bulls35c4,286$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x154b…95dbbacked Bulls34c4,259$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.381330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Bulls35c4,198$1,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,468.4730947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ae…4318backed Heat77c4,127$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.0929858.7%175 W · 123 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Bulls38c4,104$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.521,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bulls1c3,910$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Heat66c3,872$2,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.9760549.8%301 W · 304 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bulls36c3,778$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.642,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Bulls40c3,750$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50048938.7%189 W · 300 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Heat64c3,687$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.4895651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcd…c3d4backed Heat59c3,633$2,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.531963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa26c…278dbacked Bulls41c3,625$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.251752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x741a…4dbebacked Bulls30c3,312$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.983138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Heat61c3,300$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,28741652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Heat65c3,253$2,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.561,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Heat61c3,167$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.136,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…8c81backed Bulls10c3,097$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010027%27 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Bulls35c3,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05037944.3%168 W · 211 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23bc…d15ebacked Bulls34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Heat64c2,950$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.495650%28 W · 28 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4264…007cbacked Heat61c2,900$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1311464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+28%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5ebf…e50fbacked Bulls41c2,873$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170.7365144.5%290 W · 361 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5993…33a2backed Bulls35c2,857$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00038046.6%177 W · 203 L-1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa558…1b44backed Bulls36c2,778$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e1e…bca3backed Bulls40c2,774$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.831050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Heat65c2,770$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.5915247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Bulls30c2,770$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83114243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eaa…c090backed Bulls39c2,675$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.251540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89da…a6c2backed Bulls5c2,675$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.371034.9%5 W · 98 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Bulls36c2,639$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95016442.1%69 W · 95 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Bulls3c2,500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8528616.4%47 W · 239 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8382…6c17backed Heat60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Heat61c2,487$1,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.895052%26 W · 24 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat64c2,404$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.213,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Bulls35c2,300$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80537747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Heat62c2,283$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.2728742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x927a…f706backed Bulls5c2,120$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.924139%94 W · 147 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Bulls38c2,104$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.5276249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.