TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 234.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,538 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7760…21f0backed Under53c4,500$2,385 inWon+$2,11546145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c3,911$1,864 inLost-$1,863.519,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under51c3,176$1,620 inWon+$1,556.4747856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under54c2,222$1,200 inWon+$1,022.221,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Over48c2,083$1,000 inLost-$1,00018343.7%80 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed Over53c1,887$1,000 inLost-$1,00013355.6%74 W · 59 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Under53c1,887$1,000 inWon+$886.7912051.7%62 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over46c1,427$656 inLost-$656.422,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over48c1,169$559 inLost-$558.593,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over46c754.19$347 inLost-$346.933,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x00d4…0a6abacked Over46c662.8$305 inLost-$304.996756.7%38 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c608$328 inWon+$279.688,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under52c600$312 inWon+$28847542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Over48c593.9$285 inLost-$285.0732450.3%163 W · 161 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf104…d34cbacked Under53c366.41$194 inWon+$172.2113850%69 W · 69 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over48c296.61$142 inLost-$142.374,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Over48c211.22$101 inLost-$101.3943244%190 W · 242 L-18.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Over47c175.78$83 inLost-$82.6217249.4%85 W · 87 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ccc…585fbacked Over49c150$74 inLost-$73.55141.2%21 W · 30 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe62e…d3e2backed Under52c100$52 inWon+$4810644.3%47 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over47c100$47 inLost-$4791148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f6…66e2backed Over47c100$47 inLost-$4720149.8%100 W · 101 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under53c70$37 inWon+$32.949351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Under52c59.63$31 inWon+$28.6253149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9c…e966backed Over50c43.18$22 inLost-$21.5914547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under52c38.46$20 inWon+$18.4643647.9%209 W · 227 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9f…bd6fbacked Over49c30.61$15 inLost-$152934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over49c30$15 inLost-$14.5539041%160 W · 230 L-32.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x914b…a886backed Over50c30$15 inLost-$151040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Under53c28.3$15 inWon+$13.322655.3%125 W · 101 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Under53c25.04$13 inWon+$11.7738347%180 W · 203 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over47c25.04$12 inLost-$11.774,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Under53c20$11 inWon+$9.441048.3%198 W · 212 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.