NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81a165988bb5b92f714da020109969aee9f5954a8e5f1233337fa8e99404e84e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee17…b46ebacked Heat | 52c | 11,109$5,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,332.54 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Bulls | 48c | 7,917$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Bulls | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…c0edbacked Heat | 48c | 2,942$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…ae83backed Bulls | 52c | 2,820$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…0ce9backed Bulls | 52c | 2,783$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…f90fbacked Heat | 48c | 2,695$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3664…0a5bbacked Heat | 48c | 2,692$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41f…8e04backed Bulls | 52c | 2,615$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4004…984cbacked Bulls | 52c | 2,567$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…767ebacked Heat | 48c | 2,456$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d35…600abacked Bulls | 52c | 2,325$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…b9e9backed Heat | 48c | 2,254$1,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09de…4b9abacked Heat | 48c | 2,235$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…0669backed Bulls | 52c | 2,212$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…c2febacked Bulls | 52c | 1,854$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…b921backed Heat | 48c | 1,786$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8a…1fcabacked Heat | 48c | 1,652$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d9…ef05backed Bulls | 52c | 1,425$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…ca52backed Heat | 48c | 1,422$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3772…24edbacked Bulls | 52c | 1,202$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda1a…68dbbacked Bulls | 52c | 1,157$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Heat | 49c | 882.08$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.86 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4d…77dabacked Heat | 48c | 826$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Heat | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.27 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 46c | 715.65$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.39 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 48c | 637.59$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Bulls | 47c | 518$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.82 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Heat | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Bulls | 46c | 489.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.6 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Heat | 52c | 454$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.46 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Bulls | 47c | 373.3$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 49c | 257.6$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.93 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Bulls | 5c | 245.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Heat | 55c | 203.18$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bulls | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Bulls | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Bulls | 48c | 188.63$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Heat | 52c | 171.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Heat | 54c | 120.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Heat | 50c | 116.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Heat | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 50c | 78.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Heat | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Bulls | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Bulls | 52c | 61.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Heat | 48c | 45.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed Heat | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…b5a2backed Bulls | 52c | 38.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Heat | 53c | 37.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Heat | 54c | 37.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Heat | 56c | 35.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Bulls | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Bulls | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd412…a150backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)this page
- Bulls vs. HeatHeat won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 217.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 219.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Coby White: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Huerter: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kevin Huerter: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Kevin Huerter: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.