NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8196fcb806e7d437af59c25fc2f423382643841c791e33af83aa74864b19bcd4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Heat, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Bulls | 48c | 5,287$2,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Heat | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 46c | 4,789$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.99 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Heat | 53c | 4,657$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,198.08 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bulls | 42c | 3,514$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd462…eaecbacked Bulls | 48c | 3,246$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…a146backed Heat | 52c | 3,246$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,558.08 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Bulls | 49c | 2,805$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 54c | 2,424$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.13 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Heat | 53c | 1,804$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.08 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Bulls | 47c | 1,650$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.49 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Heat | 52c | 1,600$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.99 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Heat | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Heat | 58c | 1,490$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.97 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls | 45c | 1,290$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.63 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Bulls | 42c | 1,032$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.3 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Heat | 57c | 999.99$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Bulls | 47c | 893.62$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Heat | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…4774backed Heat | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b42…1e8fbacked Bulls | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Heat | 54c | 489.31$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.47 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Heat | 53c | 473.54$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.56 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Heat | 57c | 472$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.96 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Bulls | 18c | 437.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Heat | 58c | 423.44$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Heat | 71c | 421.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heat | 76c | 382.28$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.23 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bulls | 47c | 382.17$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.62 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Heat | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls | 41c | 369$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.29 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Bulls | 33c | 256.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Bulls | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Bulls | 48c | 220.37$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…1852backed Heat | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Heat | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…912ebacked Bulls | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc05c…c739backed Heat | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heat | 50c | 149.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bulls | 42c | 142.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf02…38b9backed Heat | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Heat | 55c | 109$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bulls | 44c | 77.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Bulls | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Heat | 55c | 66.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Heat | 51c | 59.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Heat | 56c | 57.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Bulls | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…d4a4backed Heat | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Heat | 58c | 40.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ff…a806backed Bulls | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 30.6%49 W · 111 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Heat | 56c | 36.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed Bulls | 42c | 35.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Heat | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Heat | 59c | 27.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Heat | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)this page
- Bulls vs. HeatHeat won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 217.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 219.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Under won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Coby White: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Huerter: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kevin Huerter: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Kevin Huerter: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.