NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-6.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b884fe12fc9ecfdec8f944896d4e37e64b465f8ac1983d10607f7ec131b0d0c

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Heatof Heat, Bulls
Resolved: Feb 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $375,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $376,738

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $375,027 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Heat	50c	328,446$164,032 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164,413.31	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bulls	50c	300,000$150,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150,000	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Bulls	50c	11,111$5,556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,555.5	245	54.7%134 W · 111 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls	52c	8,280$4,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,282.3	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Bulls	56c	6,958$3,896 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,896.36	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Heat	64c	5,646$3,639 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,006.55	98	52%51 W · 47 L	-3.8wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Bulls	53c	5,633$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	100	45%45 W · 55 L	-9.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-20%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Bulls	36c	5,155$1,857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,856.73	830	39.4%327 W · 503 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e86…d720backed Heat	49c	2,211$1,091 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,119.61	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Bulls	53c	1,859$983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$983.12	185	47%87 W · 98 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Heat	44c	1,426$630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$795.55	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	52c	1,373$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.48	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Bulls	55c	900$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Heat	46c	858.71$393 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465.89	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bulls	55c	764.64$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.68	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls	23c	711.89$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.19	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Bulls	52c	466.74$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.82	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x726b…c72bbacked Bulls	53c	443.28$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.87	82	53.7%44 W · 38 L	+5.8wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa885…84debacked Heat	47c	420$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.6	88	56.8%50 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Bulls	53c	420$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.5	221	38%84 W · 137 L	-11.6wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Bulls	51c	407.12$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.47	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf24b…d4cebacked Heat	75c	400.59$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.59	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a56…530ebacked Bulls	43c	400$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Bulls	52c	360$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.2	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Bulls	53c	298.69$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.2	279	43%120 W · 159 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x646e…294dbacked Bulls	53c	281.37$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	82	40.2%33 W · 49 L	-8.8wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Heat	48c	249.04$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.5	382	53.4%204 W · 178 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x131e…3343backed Heat	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bulls	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	516	51%263 W · 253 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Bulls	24c	200$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	666	45.9%306 W · 360 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Bulls	52c	200$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f6…66e2backed Bulls	52c	200$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	201	49.8%100 W · 101 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe82…7056backed Bulls	52c	177.95$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.53	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Bulls	17c	176.27$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.45	397	36.3%144 W · 253 L	-27.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Heat	49c	163.27$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.27	463	46.4%215 W · 248 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Heat	77c	162.61$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.56	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Heat	44c	161.69$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.55	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Bulls	52c	122.63$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.21	216	45.8%99 W · 117 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat	45c	101.95$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.07	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1206…eaeebacked Bulls	54c	101.48$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.08	66	45.5%30 W · 36 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3167…f43cbacked Heat	46c	86.96$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.96	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-5.1wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x11de…4e67backed Bulls	52c	69.39$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.93	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Heat	74c	67.57$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.57	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Heat	44c	64.42$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.08	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Bulls	52c	57.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Bulls	51c	48.34$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.65	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad62…c7dfbacked Heat	46c	41.39$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.35	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.28per pick	52cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab2c…7e7cbacked Bulls	53c	40.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-3.6wins	-0.16per pick	46cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc98a…edacbacked Bulls	53c	40.41$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d0…0671backed Heat	47c	40$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.2	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1466…3bfbbacked Bulls	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	196	49%96 W · 100 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77ed…6102backed Bulls	52c	37.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7832…a994backed Bulls	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	84	51.2%43 W · 41 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6b2…fba9backed Bulls	52c	28.67$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-7.3wins	-0.27per pick	49cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Bulls	51c	23.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	140	50.7%71 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedef…4ee4backed Heat	74c	20.11$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.13	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.30per pick	70cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d6…7cc2backed Bulls	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	53cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7337…0cd1backed Bulls	53c	19.96$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-6.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event