NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab1b661a1c7c14ae7381328383ffa705ad2f46148e567794b3225a717a5c8abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8612…4c74backed Over | 48c | 4,128$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…e0b9backed Under | 52c | 4,026$2,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,932.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd5…ceffbacked Under | 52c | 4,022$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,930.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…8ac4backed Over | 48c | 3,821$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa698…45a0backed Over | 48c | 3,621$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,738.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2a…86fdbacked Over | 48c | 3,458$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd649…b5a2backed Under | 52c | 3,431$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,646.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5b…fba2backed Over | 48c | 3,427$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c5…927cbacked Under | 52c | 3,421$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,642.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e8…7507backed Over | 48c | 3,325$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…13a2backed Under | 52c | 3,215$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 3,175$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efa…58c1backed Under | 52c | 3,022$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…b9bcbacked Under | 52c | 2,912$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,397.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4176…63b1backed Under | 52c | 2,844$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfd…81d9backed Over | 48c | 2,669$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6e…d2e0backed Over | 48c | 2,444$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…6db5backed Under | 52c | 1,652$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 56c | 1,359$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.96 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe28…fe75backed Over | 48c | 1,022$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b1…b759backed Over | 48c | 964$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…4a56backed Under | 52c | 867$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x342a…352abacked Over | 48c | 835$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d05…5a6cbacked Over | 48c | 811$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…7c6abacked Under | 52c | 779$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe660…3242backed Over | 48c | 740$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 56c | 652$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.88 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc5…4e1fbacked Under | 52c | 512$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…5b10backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6443…e086backed Under | 52c | 487$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 44c | 468.64$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.52 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…9c81backed Under | 52c | 452$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…da9cbacked Over | 48c | 377$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 372$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.44 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 44c | 179.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 51c | 159.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…027abacked Under | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc02e…7d05backed Under | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…97cebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…f43cbacked Over | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 57.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc638…eb19backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…4c95backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7b…5b9ebacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…95e7backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb38…ededbacked Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f84…2de8backed Under | 54c | 37.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1855…f911backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…a0b7backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…fe49backed Under | 55c | 36.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d4…a6b4backed Under | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…2019backed Under | 51c | 27.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f04…eaa4backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…9501backed Under | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…a4b8backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…2452backed Under | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…8235backed Under | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 236.5this page
- Bulls vs. HeatHeat won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Bulls vs. Heat: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 217.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 219.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 228.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 234.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Under won
- Coby White: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Coby White: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Coby White: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Kevin Huerter: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Kevin Huerter: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Kevin Huerter: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-6.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.