TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6ccc…585f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Commodities, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT5141.2%21 W · 30 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Kings: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.5
Raptors vs. Pelicans: O/U 234.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.88
Grizzlies vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$106
Heat vs. 76ers: O/U 238.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+96.1%+$75.95
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+72.4%+$75.6
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$245
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$652Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$652.4
Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 234.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+100%+$117.5
Hornets vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+63.9%+$198.75
76ers vs. Lakers: O/U 231.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+75.4%+$86
Grizzlies vs. Kings: O/U 229.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+78.6%+$176
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+100%+$150
Cavaliers vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+92.3%+$72
Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 234.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$73.5
Nets vs. Jazz: O/U 225.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$79.5
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 235.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$50.4
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans: O/U 231.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$907Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$906.66
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$395.49
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$57.98
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$89.82
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$788Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$787.62
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Lakers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$151.2
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$127.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$228.67
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+213.1%+$219.43
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$579Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+366.2%+$2,120.8
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$31.5
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$100
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$200.5
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$64.9
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$28.14
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$26.84
All 11 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST1020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid+54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$377Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$376.71
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$165
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 35.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+1,289.9%+$634.24
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$38.07
Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$53.35
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 130 and 140 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$13.38
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 140 and 150 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$21.6
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$192.77
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$105
Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+53.9%+$69.54
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,850Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,849.85
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$615Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$615.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+170.3%+$375.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.