NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f4d28665d803476722cb5067b6e146bd02c9069e9dd8ace770162ec62a279b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf95…eb74backed Under | 51c | 4,200$2,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,058 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…db7dbacked Over | 49c | 4,200$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,058 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c51…60bcbacked Over | 49c | 4,100$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a9…676ebacked Under | 51c | 4,100$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c5…5c0dbacked Over | 49c | 4,100$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…d8febacked Under | 51c | 4,100$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd234…90b0backed Over | 49c | 4,100$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…e3ecbacked Under | 51c | 4,100$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xafe7…7e7fbacked Over | 49c | 4,100$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…00f6backed Under | 51c | 4,100$2,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,009 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 54c | 3,152$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.05 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 59c | 2,584$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.35 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 1,615$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 819.43$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.94 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 663.36$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.78 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 56c | 517.51$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.8 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 55c | 252.42$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Over | 42c | 238$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2502…02e0backed Over | 44c | 237.23$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 49c | 190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Over | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Over | 49c | 153.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 45c | 146.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…585fbacked Over | 42c | 139$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 58c | 136.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 45c | 108$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Over | 42c | 107.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed Over | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 55c | 99.46$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 48c | 93.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…78edbacked Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Under | 58c | 84.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 47c | 84.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 44c | 74.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 66.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Over | 48c | 64.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c54…da2cbacked Over | 49c | 63.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 46.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 53c | 46.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 37.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…da92backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 56c | 31.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 55c | 30.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +10.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 38c | 30.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed Over | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.