NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d19a461aa6326e4ce0edda74fb38efb50757962f9c10f6a9017f64b32e14a53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Over | 55c | 2,541$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.69 | 183 | 45.9%84 W · 99 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 45c | 1,672$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.4 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…585fbacked Over | 54c | 1,448$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.62 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 1,266$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 41c | 1,059$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.62 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 864.81$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.97 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 770.71$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.91 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 55c | 350$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…5490backed Under | 57c | 300.42$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 46c | 282$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.64 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 44c | 270$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 247.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 46c | 241.72$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.18 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…0493backed Over | 54c | 195.9$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6c…fe22backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 53c | 164.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 53c | 154$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 136.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 39c | 133.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 131.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.52 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 53c | 130.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 47c | 126$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 15c | 107.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 502 | 41.2%207 W · 295 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 47c | 103$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4d…5413backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 98.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 95.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…2068backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 47c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 58c | 71.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Under | 46c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 97 | 60.8%59 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 76c | 62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 172 | 43%74 W · 98 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 51.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…84b9backed Over | 55c | 49.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 43c | 44.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 44c | 41.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 52c | 36.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9f…5cf0backed Over | 54c | 31.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Over | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.