NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46c7f52393f223c4d025d4d5cd0be4d286102bff625ae747a4c9936e13ae2aab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 6,948$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,614.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 49c | 6,122$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,122.45 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 49c | 6,001$2,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.65 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 51c | 5,918$3,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,018.22 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Over | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Over | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 564 | 53.9%304 W · 260 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 51c | 2,826$1,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.46 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 2,380$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.02 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Under | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…3b33backed Under | 47c | 1,979$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.72 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…b465backed Over | 55c | 1,544$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 54c | 1,515$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.64 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.81 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…585fbacked Over | 52c | 758.41$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.49 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 40c | 732.63$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.05 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Over | 54c | 362.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.01 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 47c | 251$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.03 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 47c | 200$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 153.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 150.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.14 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 129.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 123.71$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Under | 48c | 110.83$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Over | 53c | 110.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…b325backed Over | 53c | 109.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.85 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 101.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…68d1backed Over | 51c | 82.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 49c | 59.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…fe0abacked Over | 51c | 56.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 279 | 43%120 W · 159 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed Over | 51c | 48.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 216 | 45.8%99 W · 117 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 49c | 45.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 46c | 42.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…2222backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.