NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21162c43029320a06119771d39ba424fcfba5d3debec47ad5819cd310451d458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Bulls, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf668…5c69backed Heat | 57c | 8,225$4,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,536.78 | 363 | 59.8%217 W · 146 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…8a0bbacked Bulls | 48c | 4,150$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…bce1backed Heat | 52c | 4,150$2,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…14adbacked Heat | 52c | 3,940$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,891.19 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…4d21backed Bulls | 48c | 3,940$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,891.19 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bulls | 43c | 1,512$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.7 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Heat | 57c | 1,372$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.81 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 75c | 1,231$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Bulls | 30c | 1,138$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.6 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Heat | 58c | 582$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.56 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f1…04e9backed Heat | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Bulls | 44c | 499.97$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 54c | 487.72$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.18 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e1…4cc7backed Bulls | 45c | 442.84$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.28 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls | 44c | 401.76$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.08 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Heat | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bulls | 41c | 322$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Bulls | 46c | 217.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Bulls | 43c | 205.07$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Bulls | 18c | 198.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f32…483dbacked Bulls | 44c | 182.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Bulls | 44c | 161.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bulls | 43c | 143.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…43aabacked Bulls | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Bulls | 43c | 112.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Heat | 57c | 104.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Heat | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…8c27backed Heat | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 301 | 32.6%98 W · 203 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Heat | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…28dcbacked Bulls | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Heat | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Bulls | 43c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Heat | 57c | 46.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Bulls | 47c | 44.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…24bebacked Bulls | 45c | 43.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Heat | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls | 44c | 35.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Heat | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Bulls | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Heat | 79c | 30.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 243 | 58%141 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c8…2f5abacked Heat | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Bulls | 44c | 28.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Heat | 54c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Bulls | 45c | 22.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.