NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x957b468ea8c8b98db73c2117d6c30dbbaff4c45be141a31b52a618bb19f99812
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Under | 53c | 13,636$7,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,432.39 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,899.99 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 8,451$4,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,141.18 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 4,605$2,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,196.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 47c | 1,888$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.36 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 1,369$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.92 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…27a4backed Over | 46c | 1,261$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 47c | 1,063$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.53 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Over | 47c | 1,035$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.5 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 725$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 47c | 699.26$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.65 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 47c | 556.6$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.6 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…afb0backed Under | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +51%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 257$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 215.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Over | 44c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…83edbacked Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 58c | 157.17$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 41c | 155.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 43c | 143.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 47c | 113.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 108.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 40c | 43.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…bc76backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 39.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 48c | 39.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Over | 49c | 35.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 60c | 28.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 54c | 24.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Over | 51c | 21.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.