NBA · resolved market
Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36d0d1b3707aa899f334a146b8378ba730779b20d10746b51c92fcf7475b970a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $426,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $424,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33d0…f7ebbacked Yes | 4c | 120,932$5,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,101 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -10.1wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Yes | 17c | 53,825$9,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,176.59 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Yes | 50c | 32,331$16,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,165.65 | 964 | 47.8%461 W · 503 L | +35.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2f…be86backed Yes | 11c | 29,993$3,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,329.33 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cce…b499backed Yes | 27c | 15,500$4,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…867fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Yes | 50c | 4,103$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e9…aafdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,501$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed No | 77c | 2,977$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.07 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,537$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…5bc0backed Yes | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…13d9backed Yes | 2c | 2,323$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…e243backed Yes | 48c | 2,000$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…3531backed Yes | 50c | 2,000$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.36 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed No | 46c | 1,500$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 1,424$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.89 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Yes | 20c | 1,023$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 235 | 39.1%92 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 11c | 945$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e19…9bdfbacked No | 78c | 719.11$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes | 18c | 489$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 441.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked No | 28c | 373.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 3c | 366.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…e31fbacked No | 52c | 260.14$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.61 | 473 | 54.8%259 W · 214 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed No | 77c | 227.76$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.61 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b2…8c41backed Yes | 22c | 95.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Yes | 28c | 35.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.