TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,653
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,653 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d24…09b2backed Over45c3,200$1,440 inLost-$1,44020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0010…fe6bbacked Under55c3,200$1,760 inWon+$1,440366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over45c2,183$988 inLost-$988.439,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Under53c2,134$1,131 inWon+$1,003.111,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Under63c638.53$400 inWon+$238.537862.8%49 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over46c575.15$265 inLost-$264.651,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over37c420.31$156 inLost-$155.513,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Under56c357.14$200 inWon+$157.1435942.1%151 W · 208 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over44c342.86$151 inLost-$150.863,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Under58c319.99$186 inWon+$134.424955.8%139 W · 110 L+0.7wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over42c307.14$128 inLost-$1283,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Over37c294.29$108 inLost-$108.0722836.4%83 W · 145 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ccc…585fbacked Over39c231.57$90 inLost-$89.825141.2%21 W · 30 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over10c207.7$20 inLost-$20.431,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under56c200$112 inWon+$8841052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Over8c180.24$14 inLost-$14.423,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over42c160.28$67 inLost-$67.3252052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8567…56a3backed Under60c142.17$85 inWon+$57.17785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+52.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over40c139.15$56 inLost-$55.661,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under56c100$56 inWon+$4442551.3%218 W · 207 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under56c100$56 inWon+$4441354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb79b…cf30backed Under60c100$60 inWon+$403452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under60c99.17$60 inWon+$39.672,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over40c98.67$39 inLost-$39.471,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c3…5e28backed Under66c45.53$30 inWon+$15.53650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under63c40$25 inWon+$14.831947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over44c37.91$17 inLost-$16.822,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over38c36.75$14 inLost-$13.8768940.2%277 W · 412 L-54.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under63c33.33$21 inWon+$12.3337959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over46c27$13 inLost-$12.5539041%160 W · 230 L-32.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5e9f…5cf0backed Under62c24$15 inWon+$9.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-40.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Under52c23$12 inWon+$11.044660.9%28 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Under62c20.82$13 inWon+$7.9118345.9%84 W · 99 L-16.4wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under62c20.04$12 inWon+$7.5457657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe760…aadcbacked Under64c16.74$11 inWon+$5.9515248.7%74 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd6d…c504backed Under64c15.63$10 inWon+$5.638854.5%48 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.