NBA · resolved market
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9814063fff1374bce0a5689afd809c0ed93d1550453c7e2b7d07b39c9f4dffff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 50c | 2,213$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.71 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 1,779$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 51c | 1,251$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.33 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 49c | 879.78$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.09 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 631.16$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.96 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 347.12$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 49c | 202.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 46c | 150.45$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a6…3cd9backed Under | 55c | 146.04$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 49c | 120.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 46c | 105.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Under | 54c | 87.04$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 52c | 75.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…fb23backed Under | 55c | 69.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…0bb5backed Under | 54c | 66.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…4284backed Under | 54c | 62.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…7d6fbacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe8…e59ebacked Under | 54c | 45.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…6555backed Under | 54c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 49c | 40.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…46a1backed Under | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…223dbacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…e966backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…39ccbacked Under | 54c | 38.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…91c0backed Under | 55c | 38.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b14…74bcbacked Under | 54c | 37.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…0d3bbacked Under | 54c | 37.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181c…7671backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…48cfbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…cdccbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae66backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…32ddbacked Under | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…441cbacked Under | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…53edbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…48b7backed Under | 55c | 35.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 97 | 60.8%59 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 30.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…afafbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…ac2fbacked Under | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2522…c593backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9c…aaf9backed Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 68cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…dcf0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63dd…c279backed Under | 54c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 239.5this page
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Heat vs. BullsHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H MoneylineHeat won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 121.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 123.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 236.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 237.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 238.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nikola Vučević: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Bulls (-1.5)Heat won
- Spread: Heat (-2.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.