Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda368e1f843931105e33e4d00c06e20f962ffc233389b8df15f53efc9d3d2984
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,561,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,529,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,561,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb500…719abacked Yes | 2c | 3,996,939$99,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99,453.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 2c | 420,229$9,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,864.16 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 2c | 349,665$7,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,480.93 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 268,164$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.5 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…2cadbacked Yes | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…61f9backed Yes | 3c | 182,029$5,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,986.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…77cebacked Yes | 6c | 178,255$9,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,968.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f0…e926backed Yes | 3c | 160,081$5,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,440.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 4c | 136,589$5,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,746.04 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 4c | 132,386$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 112,307$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.8 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…6122backed Yes | 1c | 102,735$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 2c | 100,398$2,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,507.26 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 4c | 90,183$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,640.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…8955backed Yes | 1c | 87,973$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 1c | 85,696$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.66 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 2c | 83,792$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.83 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 4c | 82,123$3,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,316.93 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…18cdbacked Yes | 1c | 73,972$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1432…11f5backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 2c | 69,517$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 4c | 69,000$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466.9 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…76ffbacked Yes | 3c | 68,452$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9539…44b6backed Yes | 1c | 67,500$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…c70ebacked Yes | 2c | 67,035$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e7…ebd3backed Yes | 6c | 66,728$3,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,971.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 64,000$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 3c | 61,756$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.95 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7c…c933backed Yes | 1c | 61,741$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Yes | 3c | 60,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ceb…3cc1backed Yes | 2c | 59,560$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e66…5a50backed Yes | 1c | 57,000$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b11…0ab9backed Yes | 0c | 55,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…8680backed Yes | 5c | 53,433$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,522.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e9…1fc2backed Yes | 6c | 50,017$3,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,159.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…adf5backed Yes | 1c | 50,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9e…76fabacked Yes | 1c | 49,672$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Yes | 0c | 47,829$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 3c | 47,810$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.77 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…2bd2backed Yes | 4c | 46,876$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a6…588bbacked Yes | 2c | 44,895$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$907.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe570…686fbacked Yes | 4c | 41,938$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,472.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9c…731fbacked Yes | 4c | 41,048$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ee…752bbacked Yes | 3c | 39,651$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98bf…c046backed Yes | 2c | 38,463$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.1 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c10…7a35backed Yes | 2c | 37,818$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes | 1c | 36,087$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd024…dc82backed Yes | 1c | 35,278$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…ac38backed Yes | 3c | 35,163$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes | 2c | 34,375$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Yes | 1c | 34,000$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.71 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa8…9314backed Yes | 0c | 33,418$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x060f…3c0ebacked Yes | 3c | 33,255$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…adc8backed Yes | 3c | 31,810$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c68…072dbacked Yes | 3c | 31,012$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d9…593abacked Yes | 2c | 30,799$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 3cpaid | +819.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c20…b671backed Yes | 7c | 30,096$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 3c | 29,656$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…e11bbacked Yes | 1c | 29,000$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes | 3c | 28,833$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.58 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…40fabacked Yes | 1c | 28,062$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes | 5c | 27,971$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2c…21edbacked Yes | 2c | 27,943$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…4b2dbacked Yes | 4c | 27,458$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 3c | 27,441$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec7…f536backed Yes | 0c | 27,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes | 0c | 26,820$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a11…623dbacked Yes | 3c | 26,766$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…7487backed Yes | 1c | 26,579$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7de…e753backed Yes | 6c | 26,302$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 3c | 26,271$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…05f5backed Yes | 0c | 26,086$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 1c | 26,073$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f4…2bc2backed Yes | 0c | 25,853$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…07abbacked Yes | 1c | 25,509$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 4c | 25,424$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed Yes | 2c | 25,000$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…ce32backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 2c | 25,000$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…801abacked Yes | 4c | 24,941$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…593dbacked Yes | 2c | 24,694$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c8…e697backed Yes | 3c | 24,694$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1d…e0adbacked Yes | 1c | 24,138$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…83b5backed Yes | 4c | 23,826$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ef…f35fbacked Yes | 3c | 23,447$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…fa00backed Yes | 3c | 23,226$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.2 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x452c…7449backed Yes | 2c | 23,114$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…0a13backed Yes | 2c | 22,493$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf748…c387backed Yes | 4c | 21,728$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 3c | 21,702$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc4…e5c3backed Yes | 2c | 21,060$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.38 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x839c…dcc6backed Yes | 2c | 21,008$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3202…6a46backed Yes | 3c | 20,672$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.54 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1a…3852backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b65…87b3backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes | 4c | 20,000$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424a…1b92backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8c9dbacked Yes | 5c | 19,864$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes | 2c | 19,073$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.52per pick | 15cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.