TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,561,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,529,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,561,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,513 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb500…719abacked Yes2c3,996,939$99,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,453.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6996…cf9abacked Yes2c420,229$9,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,864.16456.7%3 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes2c349,665$7,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,480.931816.7%3 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+149.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa579…aad0backed Yes1c268,164$2,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,469.58610.5%9 W · 77 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa206…2cadbacked Yes0c200,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x98cd…61f9backed Yes3c182,029$5,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,986.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f6…77cebacked Yes6c178,255$9,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,968.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f0…e926backed Yes3c160,081$5,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,440.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes4c136,589$5,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,746.04190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes4c132,386$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes2c112,307$1,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.843212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f0…6122backed Yes1c102,735$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.4130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes2c100,398$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.26430%0 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc13c…a202backed Yes4c90,183$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,640.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6aa…8955backed Yes1c87,973$1,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes1c85,696$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.6611728.2%33 W · 84 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-45.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes2c83,792$2,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,009.839736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes4c82,123$3,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,316.935046%23 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9267…18cdbacked Yes1c73,972$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1432…11f5backed Yes0c70,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abe…6497backed Yes2c69,517$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3706132.8%20 W · 41 L+11.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+296.6%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xfbfd…0029backed Yes4c69,000$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.93633.3%12 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0ac…76ffbacked Yes3c68,452$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9539…44b6backed Yes1c67,500$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…c70ebacked Yes2c67,035$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.99110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e7…ebd3backed Yes6c66,728$3,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,971.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae6…8b8cbacked Yes1c64,000$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704180%0 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c61,756$1,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,550.9519119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Yes1c61,741$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.24616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Yes3c60,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ceb…3cc1backed Yes2c59,560$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e66…5a50backed Yes1c57,000$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b11…0ab9backed Yes0c55,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f9f…8680backed Yes5c53,433$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,522.11414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e9…1fc2backed Yes6c50,017$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,159.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb003…adf5backed Yes1c50,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe9e…76fabacked Yes1c49,672$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf375…a60cbacked Yes0c47,829$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes3c47,810$1,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,282.7735347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00e6…2bd2backed Yes4c46,876$1,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+113.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11a6…588bbacked Yes2c44,895$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$907.49714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-37.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe570…686fbacked Yes4c41,938$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f9c…731fbacked Yes4c41,048$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.47520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+100%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ee…752bbacked Yes3c39,651$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180.751030%3 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98bf…c046backed Yes2c38,463$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.1166.3%1 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-84.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c10…7a35backed Yes2c37,818$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked Yes1c36,087$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.151216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd024…dc82backed Yes1c35,278$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2733…ac38backed Yes3c35,163$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.74616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c8b…97efbacked Yes2c34,375$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Yes1c34,000$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.711931.6%6 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick16cpaid+71.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xeaa8…9314backed Yes0c33,418$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x060f…3c0ebacked Yes3c33,255$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc41f…adc8backed Yes3c31,810$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c68…072dbacked Yes3c31,012$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d9…593abacked Yes2c30,799$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6401010%1 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick3cpaid+819.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c20…b671backed Yes7c30,096$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes3c29,656$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005650%28 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a4e…e11bbacked Yes1c29,000$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes3c28,833$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.58147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc75…40fabacked Yes1c28,062$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb5…68bcbacked Yes5c27,971$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3001040%4 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb2c…21edbacked Yes2c27,943$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6393…4b2dbacked Yes4c27,458$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes3c27,441$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93611323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdec7…f536backed Yes0c27,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1083438.2%13 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0db5…f3aabacked Yes0c26,820$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a11…623dbacked Yes3c26,766$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5c1…7487backed Yes1c26,579$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7de…e753backed Yes6c26,302$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes3c26,271$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.241330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c77…05f5backed Yes0c26,086$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes1c26,073$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f4…2bc2backed Yes0c25,853$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ad…07abbacked Yes1c25,509$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes4c25,424$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1003917.9%7 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4cc2…9271backed Yes2c25,000$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.8944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8efb…ce32backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c25,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.54769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes2c25,000$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44240433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa363…801abacked Yes4c24,941$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9603…593dbacked Yes2c24,694$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65c8…e697backed Yes3c24,694$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1d…e0adbacked Yes1c24,138$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-26.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x261b…83b5backed Yes4c23,826$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ef…f35fbacked Yes3c23,447$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.781435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2f…fa00backed Yes3c23,226$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.22619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x452c…7449backed Yes2c23,114$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.91616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe337…0a13backed Yes2c22,493$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf748…c387backed Yes4c21,728$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.841225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54bb…59c7backed Yes3c21,702$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59416417.7%29 W · 135 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-53.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbc4…e5c3backed Yes2c21,060$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.382540%10 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-4.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x839c…dcc6backed Yes2c21,008$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes3c20,672$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.54200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b1a…3852backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b65…87b3backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccc4…5fa6backed Yes4c20,000$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424a…1b92backed Yes1c20,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3a…8c9dbacked Yes5c19,864$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.43922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes2c19,073$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.52per pick15cpaid+224.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.