Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x824df6aa7e270678a5239d697918e918834a52cc6e59ebc25b650b2df649ac82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,470,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,580,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,470,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 62c | 185,039$114,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114,814.34 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 64c | 182,858$116,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116,335.48 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 33c | 97,833$31,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,960.18 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 60c | 69,024$41,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,417.76 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 35c | 51,314$18,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,313.88 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…10f7backed Yes | 42c | 47,527$20,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,513.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 35c | 41,590$14,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,084.79 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fba…433abacked Yes | 44c | 41,330$18,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,940.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 71c | 37,591$26,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,565.36 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 45c | 34,589$15,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,632.04 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 66c | 32,543$21,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,429.05 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 70c | 32,106$22,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,425.4 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 65c | 31,997$20,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,815.75 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes | 31c | 31,599$9,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,816.66 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…d9febacked No | 0c | 31,515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 39c | 30,000$11,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,360.03 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 34c | 27,524$9,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,242.81 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 36c | 27,028$9,728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,300.28 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7d…9881backed Yes | 36c | 25,181$9,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,109.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 66c | 25,152$16,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,603.67 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 33c | 24,577$8,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,361.37 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…f1cebacked No | 64c | 22,322$14,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,361.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf880…135dbacked Yes | 34c | 21,174$7,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,986.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 41c | 19,023$7,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,137.36 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 34c | 16,108$5,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,553.34 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 67c | 16,050$10,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,741.03 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed No | 1c | 15,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 62c | 15,000$9,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,299.99 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…dee1backed No | 70c | 14,500$10,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c2f9backed Yes | 40c | 14,161$5,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,538.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 65c | 14,059$9,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,073.45 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…ba88backed No | 50c | 13,367$6,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,737.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 43c | 12,741$5,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,540.6 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…d77abacked Yes | 40c | 12,553$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,552.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…f411backed Yes | 47c | 12,475$5,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,621.4 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 44c | 12,000$5,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,720 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fd…5184backed Yes | 38c | 11,979$4,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,427.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 36c | 11,253$4,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,186.44 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 11,106$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 35c | 10,913$3,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,129.86 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…040dbacked No | 62c | 10,414$6,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,467.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb448…1da0backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafe6…8192backed Yes | 32c | 10,000$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,849.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.27per pick | 17cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Yes | 33c | 9,991$3,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,694.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed Yes | 37c | 9,746$3,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,172.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed Yes | 38c | 9,742$3,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,039.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…d73fbacked Yes | 41c | 9,682$3,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,755.66 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 36c | 9,616$3,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,165.07 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…3f39backed No | 59c | 8,679$5,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,112.51 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…0888backed Yes | 35c | 8,455$2,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,525.62 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +5.5wins | +0.50per pick | 32cpaid | +170.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…37f6backed No | 69c | 8,428$5,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,773.51 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -7.1wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…3c60backed No | 64c | 8,401$5,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,338.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 67c | 8,396$5,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,659.01 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 40c | 8,163$3,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,906.42 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 61c | 7,842$4,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,817.33 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f4…930abacked Yes | 39c | 7,806$3,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,742.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 33c | 7,735$2,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,189.02 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 35c | 7,568$2,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,955.15 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf97…3b28backed Yes | 36c | 7,542$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,841.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 19cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…cdcbbacked Yes | 38c | 7,456$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,605.81 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 0c | 7,368$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…d050backed Yes | 38c | 7,060$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,360.31 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 62c | 6,999$4,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,335.46 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 40c | 6,981$2,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,219.78 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…4570backed Yes | 39c | 6,926$2,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,230.46 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +8.3wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…e509backed Yes | 39c | 6,909$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,249.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +331.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 29c | 6,899$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,916.34 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…58f9backed Yes | 34c | 6,790$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,490.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 40c | 6,739$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,039.64 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 52c | 6,460$3,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,112.84 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 36c | 6,236$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,991.04 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 6,226$3,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,953.1 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe883…b5b8backed No | 64c | 6,215$3,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,987 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…eb2bbacked Yes | 33c | 6,200$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,124 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…f5e0backed Yes | 43c | 6,137$2,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,468.84 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked No | 69c | 6,091$4,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,181.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 40c | 6,014$2,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,608.39 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked No | 75c | 5,962$4,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,471.74 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…6d97backed Yes | 35c | 5,934$2,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,874.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…28f8backed Yes | 39c | 5,804$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,554.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b12…43c8backed Yes | 44c | 5,798$2,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,255.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 40c | 5,750$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,450 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…e06bbacked No | 63c | 5,689$3,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,568.26 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…9d40backed No | 2c | 5,578$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed Yes | 39c | 5,500$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,355 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +10.6wins | +0.62per pick | 26cpaid | +259.4%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed Yes | 38c | 5,376$2,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,349.81 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…eec7backed Yes | 39c | 5,375$2,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,288.11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 39c | 5,374$2,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,264.44 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35b1…8962backed Yes | 44c | 5,193$2,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,924.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked No | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 30c | 5,000$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,506.52 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,590 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…b679backed No | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,049.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -57%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 40c | 4,953$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.05 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…7143backed Yes | 29c | 4,921$1,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.96 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.56per pick | 32cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…9cb3backed No | 59c | 4,863$2,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,869.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6c…741fbacked Yes | 36c | 4,749$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,022.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4044…8de5backed Yes | 46c | 4,746$2,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,555.55 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.