Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4bc113c6da82db67b6b17d39369de522e61425dd3609b9bf9306d266230b3a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,763,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,535,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,763,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 1c | 649,999$4,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,949.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 174,786$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.14 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 1c | 160,236$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.6 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 137,512$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.48 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…b52abacked Yes | 1c | 100,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 98,284$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.21 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027e…b980backed Yes | 0c | 65,157$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 62,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 3c | 61,675$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.42 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 42,000$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbafd…9b9dbacked Yes | 3c | 41,408$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 1c | 40,464$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.44 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedee…a771backed Yes | 1c | 36,230$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 2c | 35,782$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.3 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 1c | 35,000$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 3c | 32,611$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.43 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 31,954$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.57 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 4c | 30,385$1,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a2…9d4bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b37…3da7backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5a91backed Yes | 1c | 24,095$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 1c | 23,337$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde73…93efbacked Yes | 0c | 23,285$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,090$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…e31cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -86%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 4c | 20,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…bf25backed Yes | 1c | 19,333$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 1c | 18,012$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 2c | 16,800$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.9 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…592fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,557$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 3c | 13,880$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.94 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d4b8backed Yes | 3c | 13,587$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.33 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,136$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6b…5278backed Yes | 4c | 12,828$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafac…4a84backed Yes | 1c | 12,745$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 12,650$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 4c | 12,438$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 0c | 12,322$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 11,908$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.28 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 11,610$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabe…69f6backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 1c | 10,100$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…f440backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…b4bbbacked Yes | 0c | 9,400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae3…521fbacked Yes | 0c | 8,842$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…c75ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,750$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 1c | 8,645$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7306backed Yes | 0c | 8,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 4c | 8,184$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.07 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…a9c9backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes | 3c | 8,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 8c | 7,937$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.76 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…8dcbbacked Yes | 2c | 7,897$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes | 3c | 7,534$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…5577backed Yes | 2c | 7,369$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +221.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8f…144dbacked Yes | 3c | 7,310$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…4257backed Yes | 1c | 7,293$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a9…bafabacked Yes | 2c | 6,705$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5263…7612backed Yes | 2c | 6,645$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 1c | 6,605$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…8165backed Yes | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fc…5c33backed Yes | 1c | 6,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3b…6a99backed Yes | 3c | 6,229$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.87 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5531…c763backed Yes | 1c | 6,039$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9939…d3bebacked Yes | 1c | 5,800$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…3126backed Yes | 1c | 5,778$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f79…d84dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,707$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0e…3ce3backed Yes | 1c | 5,686$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 2c | 5,629$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.14 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,555$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.87 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…665fbacked Yes | 12c | 5,133$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +396.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…3c01backed Yes | 2c | 5,071$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…e658backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…e0b2backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +143%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942f…cd59backed Yes | 0c | 4,995$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ca…3c32backed Yes | 1c | 4,976$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 4c | 4,935$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.84 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…2c10backed Yes | 1c | 4,738$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ef…b723backed Yes | 1c | 4,602$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc019…91babacked Yes | 1c | 4,535$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…465bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,472$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 13c | 4,437$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.84 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…f818backed Yes | 1c | 4,290$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…6aaabacked Yes | 0c | 4,250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953d…fe4fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,201$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Yes | 5c | 4,193$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +284.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068e…7f47backed Yes | 0c | 4,175$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…7f72backed Yes | 3c | 4,082$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13a…f97fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,069$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 4c | 4,044$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…87cbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…5b8dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,882$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe176…9d7cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,800$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 3c | 3,700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcf…4792backed Yes | 1c | 3,537$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.