Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64b14a09a6cf9dc02b840bc83f4dcfd41ca6108544c47ecabc6e5d00bc15fd2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,619,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,247,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,619,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,511 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa6a…3c59backed Yes | 16c | 255,818$40,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,021.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 79c | 245,845$194,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,613.29 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 19c | 237,476$44,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,917.9 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 28c | 142,145$39,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,182.93 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 25c | 138,461$34,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,742.12 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 21c | 127,166$27,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,084.16 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked Yes | 18c | 106,138$18,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,667.04 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.39per pick | 15cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…0d16backed Yes | 15c | 98,518$15,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,236.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 18c | 95,675$17,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,105.02 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…9b01backed Yes | 2c | 88,267$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.81 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 22c | 86,557$19,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,378.76 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 4c | 78,000$3,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,315 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Yes | 11c | 76,834$8,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,685.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 25c | 76,089$18,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,876.9 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 10c | 75,517$7,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,578.18 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0240…e3a1backed Yes | 16c | 74,189$11,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,773.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 16c | 72,729$11,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,946.09 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 21c | 69,001$14,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,769.5 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…16a3backed Yes | 22c | 66,845$14,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,939.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 25c | 66,085$16,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,383.86 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 24c | 65,228$15,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,373.37 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 76c | 64,546$48,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,733.41 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 31c | 60,871$18,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,710.29 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…b72cbacked Yes | 15c | 59,782$9,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,080.73 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 77c | 59,217$45,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,457.6 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 57,500$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.15 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 32c | 56,907$18,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,469.7 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 69c | 56,383$38,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,525.59 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed Yes | 27c | 53,573$14,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,516.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…aa35backed Yes | 19c | 51,857$9,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,812.86 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 26c | 49,197$12,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,662.11 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 23c | 47,831$10,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,831.67 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 21c | 46,873$9,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,642.73 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 1c | 46,000$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 68c | 45,673$30,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,804.54 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 79c | 45,538$36,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,441.7 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 45,376$3,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,218.24 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…6e8cbacked Yes | 3c | 45,001$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 5c | 44,945$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.65 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 11c | 44,733$4,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,886.9 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 13c | 44,484$5,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,843.39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 12c | 44,012$5,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,440.99 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf23c…ad58backed Yes | 38c | 43,888$16,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,727.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes | 20c | 43,584$8,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,774.55 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…6d24backed Yes | 23c | 42,676$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 16c | 40,442$6,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,560.47 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9f…e125backed Yes | 10c | 40,361$4,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,180.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8b…30e4backed Yes | 4c | 40,000$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…d89bbacked Yes | 15c | 39,970$6,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,060.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 27c | 39,586$10,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,592.95 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ab…3a61backed Yes | 1c | 39,477$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…c6dabacked Yes | 33c | 39,216$12,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,769.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a6…280bbacked Yes | 30c | 39,026$11,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,860.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 29c | 38,885$11,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,087.75 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 8c | 38,070$3,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,006.03 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes | 21c | 37,691$7,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,740.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 11c | 37,500$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,249.99 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926d…635ebacked No | 79c | 36,298$28,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,673.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 32c | 36,183$11,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,705.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 33c | 34,462$11,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,390.04 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…fb70backed Yes | 29c | 34,236$9,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,896.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 73c | 34,176$24,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,261.29 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed No | 77c | 33,881$26,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,846.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 37c | 33,744$12,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,513.39 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc830…42cabacked Yes | 20c | 33,452$6,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,527.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 76c | 33,181$25,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,000.69 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 71c | 32,868$23,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,687.12 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba6b…9f4abacked Yes | 0c | 32,382$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed Yes | 20c | 32,192$6,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,489.05 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf543…c0b6backed Yes | 16c | 32,080$4,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,975 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…846fbacked Yes | 33c | 31,663$10,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,308.69 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 25c | 31,547$7,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,984.96 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked No | 65c | 31,152$20,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,051.73 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…23c9backed Yes | 22c | 30,751$6,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,666.59 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d4…6d99backed Yes | 17c | 30,197$5,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,006 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…fa42backed Yes | 3c | 29,654$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 14c | 29,407$4,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,046.51 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…f2f4backed Yes | 0c | 29,147$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…ba75backed Yes | 19c | 28,664$5,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,323.71 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 9c | 28,160$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,647.45 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…fd20backed Yes | 25c | 27,385$6,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,954.54 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Yes | 35c | 27,321$9,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 11c | 27,174$2,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,936.59 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 12c | 27,013$3,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,230.81 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…8618backed Yes | 1c | 26,500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 11c | 26,146$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,856.71 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe2…37dbbacked Yes | 30c | 25,848$7,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,730.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2b…3e70backed Yes | 26c | 25,559$6,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,730.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 10c | 25,182$2,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,569.24 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf9…9d9fbacked Yes | 16c | 25,005$4,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,001.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…1430backed No | 68c | 24,986$17,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,985.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…971fbacked Yes | 15c | 24,742$3,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,622.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb273…aa63backed Yes | 22c | 24,224$5,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,410.38 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes | 14c | 24,119$3,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,466.88 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b8f7backed Yes | 12c | 24,057$2,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,904.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 11c | 24,031$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.4 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ca…aa90backed Yes | 15c | 24,000$3,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,523.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 20c | 23,667$4,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,722.47 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 62c | 23,355$14,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,881.77 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 10c | 23,140$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,306.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.