Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43edd40756d4dfaa633687ddbfab445cdd21f9083a45289871e95b5292793bca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,689,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,626,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,689,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 839 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 26c | 133,023$33,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,966.46 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…02c3backed Yes | 76c | 100,783$76,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,042.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 22c | 96,141$20,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,783.65 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 27c | 83,013$22,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,720.63 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 22c | 62,110$13,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,357.03 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 72c | 61,305$44,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,183.04 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 51,030$36,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,187.36 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…5d4fbacked Yes | 72c | 50,805$36,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,136.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked Yes | 80c | 50,176$40,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,175.68 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed Yes | 73c | 45,000$32,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,311.95 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 24c | 43,722$10,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,673.09 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 28c | 42,680$11,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,740.17 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…4c35backed Yes | 72c | 40,100$28,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,250.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…a3b1backed Yes | 74c | 34,591$25,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,993.7 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed Yes | 74c | 32,190$23,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,439.35 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e03…6f34backed Yes | 80c | 28,477$22,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,764.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 25c | 26,276$6,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,554.83 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 7c | 25,719$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.69 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 24c | 25,382$6,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,106.66 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 26c | 24,728$6,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,396.38 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20fe…f411backed Yes | 75c | 23,345$17,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,725.02 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 73c | 22,892$16,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,185.67 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbe…b9dcbacked Yes | 73c | 20,000$14,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,435.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 26c | 19,285$5,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,079.26 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed Yes | 74c | 18,786$13,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,884.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 27c | 18,691$5,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,069.97 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 16c | 18,070$2,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,973.08 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked No | 26c | 17,974$4,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,673.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…3c60backed No | 28c | 17,508$4,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,969.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5307…7621backed Yes | 73c | 17,000$12,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,519.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…cde1backed No | 27c | 15,780$4,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,190.83 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…42e8backed No | 1c | 15,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 24c | 15,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.97 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 26c | 14,000$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.6wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 71c | 13,000$9,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,709.99 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…4a00backed No | 29c | 12,248$3,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,571.98 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Yes | 73c | 11,388$8,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,087.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…6e70backed Yes | 72c | 11,004$7,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,101.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb147…e177backed No | 32c | 10,956$3,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,538.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 10,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed No | 22c | 9,745$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…68dbbacked Yes | 68c | 9,425$6,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.32 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce89…6ea5backed No | 27c | 9,367$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…3ab0backed No | 25c | 9,072$2,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,279.16 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed No | 30c | 9,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked No | 28c | 9,000$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked Yes | 72c | 9,000$6,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 28c | 8,862$2,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,462.21 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -10.6wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 79c | 8,784$6,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…08bdbacked Yes | 75c | 8,230$6,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035.35 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +37%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf548…9484backed Yes | 77c | 8,108$6,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 22c | 7,739$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,677.96 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 75c | 7,065$5,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.41 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 76c | 7,000$5,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4189backed Yes | 75c | 6,975$5,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1942…96edbacked No | 27c | 6,884$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cb…bbf0backed Yes | 73c | 6,810$4,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,850.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe458…3436backed No | 30c | 6,647$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed No | 28c | 6,636$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.38 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4adb…02fcbacked Yes | 75c | 6,560$4,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 23c | 6,541$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.96 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a8…3b90backed No | 1c | 6,330$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 76c | 5,950$4,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.12 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…1e2ebacked Yes | 78c | 5,700$4,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 26c | 5,663$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.51 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…0d38backed Yes | 75c | 5,358$4,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d69…8830backed Yes | 70c | 5,265$3,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 5,131$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.71 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked No | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 26c | 5,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…cb6cbacked Yes | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…7e28backed Yes | 72c | 5,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 26c | 4,897$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.28 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…37f6backed No | 29c | 4,680$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.48 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -7.1wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 68c | 4,623$3,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.32 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +6.1wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 27c | 4,600$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.99 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf25…da09backed No | 26c | 4,409$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 4,318$3,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.59 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 25c | 4,300$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.99 | 229 | 27.1%62 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes | 75c | 4,259$3,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.28 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +6.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 22c | 4,245$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.04 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 70c | 4,173$2,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.93 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 75c | 4,113$3,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.1 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…c0f2backed Yes | 73c | 3,818$2,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…fe18backed No | 28c | 3,770$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…c74abacked Yes | 78c | 3,730$2,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed No | 28c | 3,573$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked No | 23c | 3,518$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.07 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed81…82eebacked No | 22c | 3,297$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 79c | 3,258$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.66 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 68c | 3,012$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.56 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e2…34fbbacked Yes | 79c | 3,000$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b5b2backed No | 26c | 2,882$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.23 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…3febbacked No | 26c | 2,762$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.47per pick | 61cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…30bebacked Yes | 73c | 2,740$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 20c | 2,719$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.49 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 10c | 2,710$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.96 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed No | 22c | 2,570$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.02 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.