Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d4d7f2eea43913d65c93351621a733f66ec079e111c278b34e8cc9e06ebe751
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,975,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,289,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,975,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,779 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3da8…8262backed Yes | 5c | 670,014$30,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,276.22 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 6c | 257,411$16,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,171.74 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 72c | 170,903$123,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,421.2 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 9c | 147,256$13,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,243.87 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 3c | 129,965$3,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,828.04 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e0…7d46backed No | 58c | 125,686$73,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,660.62 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b8f7backed Yes | 8c | 115,008$9,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,059 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…edefbacked Yes | 7c | 104,018$7,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,483.45 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…22efbacked Yes | 8c | 80,238$6,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,620.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed Yes | 6c | 77,631$4,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,907.74 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 67c | 75,650$50,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,024.08 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd1…0237backed Yes | 3c | 69,774$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 68,766$1,718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,718.37 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 65,415$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.24 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…d5e3backed Yes | 37c | 64,563$23,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,986.05 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…9572backed Yes | 8c | 62,499$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 58c | 54,459$31,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,832.06 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…ab8abacked Yes | 4c | 53,826$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.78 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…b7b7backed No | 78c | 49,500$38,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,968.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 4c | 46,500$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.77 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked No | 49c | 40,158$19,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,486.12 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 68c | 37,635$25,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,176.27 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 16c | 36,219$5,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,907.93 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…6d24backed Yes | 43c | 35,859$15,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,492.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 2c | 35,194$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.13 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes | 8c | 31,644$2,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.76 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 12c | 29,900$3,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,575.46 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 61c | 28,623$17,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,286.74 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…0a68backed Yes | 4c | 27,895$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 37c | 27,820$10,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,222.22 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566a…0d19backed Yes | 6c | 27,703$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 1c | 26,618$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.05 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 71c | 26,280$18,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,620.13 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0933…6515backed Yes | 6c | 26,124$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…c80bbacked Yes | 7c | 25,222$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.54 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 66c | 24,863$16,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,354.72 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -14.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd511…752abacked Yes | 40c | 24,829$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…1430backed Yes | 9c | 24,708$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 75c | 24,698$18,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,061.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…32f9backed Yes | 5c | 24,466$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.07 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…31ffbacked Yes | 32c | 24,039$7,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,665.3 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 19c | 23,363$4,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,446.44 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…23c9backed Yes | 9c | 22,886$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…fa8cbacked Yes | 9c | 22,499$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c8…3312backed Yes | 2c | 22,289$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…eb89backed Yes | 57c | 22,029$12,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,562.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…f092backed Yes | 58c | 21,874$12,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,579.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67eb…7ed0backed Yes | 38c | 21,575$8,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,192.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea98…8626backed Yes | 4c | 21,264$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.1 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…6adbbacked Yes | 48c | 21,212$10,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,280.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed No | 53c | 20,748$11,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,687.61 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd350…02d6backed Yes | 32c | 19,431$6,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,135.74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3211…fdd9backed Yes | 14c | 19,200$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,669.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 69c | 18,918$13,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,832.79 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 18,660$5,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,243.87 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…d89bbacked Yes | 50c | 18,430$9,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,215.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked No | 72c | 18,367$13,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,121.71 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 38c | 17,880$6,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,838.69 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 46c | 17,780$8,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,674.58 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…a28bbacked Yes | 29c | 17,639$5,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,186.93 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 79c | 16,622$13,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,558.57 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…2dabbacked Yes | 3c | 16,531$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Yes | 59c | 16,149$9,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,564.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 39c | 16,068$6,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,210.35 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 2c | 15,878$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.35 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Yes | 6c | 15,845$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.84 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 66c | 15,443$10,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,238.79 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Yes | 17c | 15,396$2,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,628.22 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Yes | 3c | 15,221$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.64 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…5558backed Yes | 35c | 15,151$5,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,231.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 19c | 15,109$2,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,921.95 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 52c | 15,004$7,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,244.57 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…dd19backed Yes | 12c | 14,894$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…8f25backed Yes | 20c | 14,806$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 12c | 14,616$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.67 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 69c | 14,314$9,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,492.59 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…3da4backed Yes | 38c | 14,266$5,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,401 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes | 29c | 14,019$4,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,077.42 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 6c | 13,949$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 21c | 13,933$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.75 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…6e4abacked Yes | 42c | 13,757$5,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,782.52 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +10.0wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x98fb…b06dbacked No | 44c | 13,748$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,747.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4e…fcefbacked Yes | 25c | 13,424$3,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,356.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…0c9abacked Yes | 49c | 13,341$6,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,491.24 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 66c | 13,152$8,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,419.16 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes | 23c | 13,107$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +195.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 53c | 13,095$6,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,114.64 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked No | 63c | 13,030$8,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,841.03 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa643…d43dbacked Yes | 48c | 13,000$6,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,190 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x654a…ce43backed Yes | 33c | 12,806$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…2868backed No | 72c | 12,788$9,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,529.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 18c | 12,743$2,259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.45 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 50c | 12,640$6,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,330.47 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0700…267bbacked Yes | 32c | 12,553$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 23cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 20c | 12,500$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed Yes | 6c | 12,441$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +559.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…16a3backed Yes | 38c | 12,175$4,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,578.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 80c | 11,894$9,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,392.82 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…bf24backed Yes | 32c | 11,881$3,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,801.21 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d8…0c91backed No | 50c | 11,850$5,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,907.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.