Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bed62b0b7e3eb52c1f0d8a5d11edad1f74989038fc1cae2889cdbe96a248dfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,461,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,444,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,461,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 594 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2a2…b04dbacked Yes | 1c | 499,999$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 6cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…b4b6backed Yes | 1c | 308,529$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa206…2cadbacked Yes | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…aad0backed Yes | 1c | 210,925$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.79 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 128,363$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.02 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…3f3cbacked Yes | 1c | 100,756$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…0ce0backed Yes | 1c | 84,757$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.21 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 0c | 53,088$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.23 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 1c | 50,413$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.87 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed Yes | 1c | 46,665$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.36 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 4c | 41,830$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.48 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…69c5backed Yes | 2c | 41,110$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.38 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…536dbacked Yes | 3c | 40,087$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.59 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…250abacked Yes | 2c | 37,952$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.17 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad1…8711backed Yes | 1c | 36,088$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 1c | 32,000$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 6cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 2c | 31,283$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.43 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…cb54backed Yes | 2c | 31,006$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.26 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3dd1backed Yes | 5c | 30,932$1,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec6…1e4cbacked Yes | 3c | 30,186$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…2b4cbacked Yes | 0c | 29,880$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.88 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 2c | 25,817$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.7 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 2c | 25,561$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c41…dc46backed Yes | 2c | 23,981$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446 | 41 | 2.4%1 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…e658backed Yes | 1c | 22,000$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 1c | 21,901$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.45 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 1c | 20,038$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28e3…8ccdbacked Yes | 2c | 19,364$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 18,753$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd4…c782backed Yes | 1c | 18,509$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x970b…6dcbbacked Yes | 5c | 17,535$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5531…c763backed Yes | 7c | 17,201$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.53 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 2c | 16,587$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.06 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 1c | 16,245$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.05 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…547ebacked Yes | 2c | 15,970$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…6497backed Yes | 5c | 15,921$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +296.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…4254backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…1a65backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Yes | 1c | 14,873$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 14,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 14,480$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.5 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…b890backed Yes | 1c | 14,286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 1c | 14,286$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad36…b67bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,991$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6099…bd70backed Yes | 2c | 13,602$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafd…9b9dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,333$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 1c | 12,399$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…3f16backed Yes | 2c | 11,523$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…dfcdbacked Yes | 1c | 11,429$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 1c | 11,153$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 13c | 11,111$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.87 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…5f96backed Yes | 2c | 11,000$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…a4c0backed Yes | 1c | 10,919$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 6c | 10,774$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.5 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d44…11d5backed Yes | 2c | 10,597$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…9e52backed Yes | 2c | 10,440$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 0c | 10,340$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.74 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8690…46f7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,950$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked Yes | 5c | 9,945$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76cd…1d53backed Yes | 0c | 9,775$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…0cd2backed Yes | 2c | 9,700$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 2c | 9,556$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.53 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Yes | 1c | 9,515$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5440…c640backed No | 79c | 9,173$7,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.77 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…a976backed Yes | 0c | 9,140$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…0f89backed Yes | 23c | 8,877$2,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,041.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4f…e25abacked Yes | 3c | 8,437$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.71 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…aba5backed Yes | 2c | 8,340$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.16 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…54d9backed Yes | 1c | 8,001$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6baf…3819backed Yes | 1c | 7,778$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2a…984dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,607$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes | 22c | 7,500$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ea…533fbacked Yes | 5c | 6,839$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 2c | 6,821$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 15c | 6,682$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -73%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 3c | 6,500$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.21 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 75c | 6,456$4,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.92 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…4efcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,436$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb74…ae29backed Yes | 3c | 6,265$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 171 | 28.7%49 W · 122 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…f0d2backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 1c | 5,937$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 5,832$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…312ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,774$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…3455backed Yes | 1c | 5,677$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…514cbacked Yes | 24c | 5,500$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 2c | 5,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c870backed Yes | 2c | 5,452$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb548…1cbcbacked Yes | 4c | 5,410$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,286$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 5,032$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.87 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb278…84cdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae8…e2fcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 61. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?this page
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2025?No won
- US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?No won
- US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 11, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 12, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 13, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Yes won
- US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.