TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5bab…53e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Tennis, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 51 out of 100; worst Earnings at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST2839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona Wildcats vs. Arizona State Sun Devilsbacked Arizona State Sun Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Michigan Wolverines vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+72.7%+$799.84
Wofford Terriers vs. Chattanooga Mocs: O/U 151.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$528Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+106.4%+$561.35
Spread: Washington State Cougars (-2.5)backed Seattle Redhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Duquesne Dukesbacked Duquesne Dukes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Xavier Musketeers vs. Seton Hall Piratesbacked Xavier Musketeers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$360
Michigan State Spartans vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knightsbacked Michigan State Spartans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+141.7%+$4,250.04
Arizona Wildcats vs. BYU Cougarsbacked BYU Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Memphis Tigers vs. Wichita State Shockersbacked Wichita State Shockers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+53.8%+$538.5
Air Force Falcons vs. Boise State Broncosbacked Air Force Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$24.75
Quinnipiac Bobcats vs. Marist Red Foxes: O/U 140.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Ramsbacked Utah State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+114%+$2,280.53
Saint Louis Billikens vs. St. Bonaventure Bonniesbacked Saint Louis Billikens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+29.9%+$627.27
Northwestern Wildcats vs. USC Trojansbacked USC Trojans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$2,100
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Syracuse Orange: O/U 151.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$540Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+85.2%+$460
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Arizona State Sun Devilsbacked Arizona State Sun Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Troy Trojans vs. Old Dominion Monarchsbacked Troy Trojans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+34.6%+$172.79
Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons vs. Detroit Titansbacked Detroit Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Charleston Southern Buccaneers vs. Presbyterian Blue Hosebacked Charleston Southern Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Colorado Buffaloesbacked Colorado Buffaloes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,804Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$1,803.6
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacksbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$633Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$632.73
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Indiana Hoosiers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$200
New Haven Chargers vs. Chicago State Cougarsbacked New Haven Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$2,600Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+194.9%+$5,066.2
Providence Friars vs. Marquette Golden Eaglesbacked Providence Friars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Vermont Catamounts vs. Albany Great Danesbacked Albany Great Danes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+567.7%+$1,703.15
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$300
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$66.61
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$773Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$772.73
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$5,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$5,000
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$999.18
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$300
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$300
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$486Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$485.82
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$200
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,011Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$1,010.96
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 14 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$434Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$433.96
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.1%+$470.59
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$700
Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 22.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+72.7%+$727
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+94.7%+$1,893.1
Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,713Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+88%+$1,507.4
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+112.8%+$1,127.66
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
Suns vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+96.1%+$249.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Indianabacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$997Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$996.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$609Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$609.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$500
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.