Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x159940fd842e01f47faf5bdc7578b9ad640b8adf6f7ec47c8ded1fad78cb6894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 18c | 33,862$6,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,197.91 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf77…ee92backed Yes | 16c | 6,417$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 26c | 4,408$1,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.71 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,975$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ac…3c1fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,478$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 70c | 2,379$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…53e6backed Yes | 32c | 1,921$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,919$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8127…5130backed No | 78c | 1,575$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.54 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,517$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,350$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 79c | 1,350$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.75 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 41c | 1,335$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 16c | 1,238$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 923.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 22c | 900$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 827.9$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.79 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 761.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 750$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 69c | 703.54$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.54 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 8c | 676.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c79…23c2backed Yes | 3c | 646.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 74c | 600$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 68c | 598.16$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.66 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 10c | 550$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 500$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.04 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 7c | 472.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 456.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…232cbacked Yes | 7c | 455.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 14c | 432.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 432.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ce…0026backed Yes | 7c | 429.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 391.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 369.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 14c | 366.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 76c | 350$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 65c | 338.78$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.02 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 14c | 333.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 21c | 306.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.41 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 11c | 302.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a3…8642backed No | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 63c | 290.85$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 7c | 266.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes | 28c | 265.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 14c | 260$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 79c | 253.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 8c | 249.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01e…777cbacked Yes | 4c | 248.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 22c | 240.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 75c | 238.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 20c | 235$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked No | 79c | 234.96$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 72c | 219$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 11c | 213.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a57…9299backed Yes | 49c | 200.02$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x031d…87d1backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…0568backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 76c | 199.98$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 57c | 187.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe58…4acbbacked No | 71c | 184.39$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 68c | 181.21$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…9c59backed No | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 32c | 170.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 24c | 167.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 31c | 162.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 8c | 160.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed Yes | 8c | 155$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 12c | 154.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…9977backed No | 78c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…ace3backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 74c | 141$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 74c | 141$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 137.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 74c | 129.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 11c | 120.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed Yes | 10c | 119$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 31c | 107.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 11c | 101.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 18c | 85.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3f62…e744backed No | 74c | 82.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…cca3backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…4890backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +245.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 74.29$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 58.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 50.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee89…cfb3backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…9fe4backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.