Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f7bd51376ac212cfdfba705d083ef7664579951ff5c85fa549e32e88c461468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,044 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 29c | 14,796$4,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,437.36 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 70c | 7,053$4,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150.66 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 65c | 6,191$4,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,043.15 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 64c | 5,710$3,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677.34 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 6c | 3,920$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.93 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a7…d768backed No | 8c | 3,148$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 72c | 2,813$2,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.49 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…c50ebacked No | 76c | 2,800$2,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,137 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed No | 23c | 2,770$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 77c | 2,330$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.9 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 2c | 2,017$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 66c | 1,529$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 49c | 1,491$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…3f67backed No | 6c | 1,341$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 77c | 1,296$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed No | 19c | 1,219$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 5c | 1,217$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 10cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed No | 28c | 1,147$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.76 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,132$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.32 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed No | 1c | 1,003$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 35c | 929.4$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 30c | 911.56$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 28c | 830.27$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.67 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 75c | 800$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed Yes | 31c | 800$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 70c | 637.89$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.04 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 64c | 609.8$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.46 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41df…4b70backed No | 69c | 600$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 600$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 2c | 571.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 541.38$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.45 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 59c | 501.69$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.23 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 25c | 431.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…9b64backed No | 8c | 395.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…1267backed Yes | 45c | 380$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 75c | 367.14$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked No | 76c | 357.63$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.98 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 29c | 346.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x529e…33e3backed Yes | 29c | 328.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 55c | 305$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 31c | 300$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 26c | 292.3$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 46c | 265$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 52c | 262.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…8d04backed No | 74c | 250$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 244.55$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.28 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ac…3c1fbacked Yes | 24c | 243.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 31c | 243.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…1ac3backed No | 21c | 243.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 29c | 220$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.2 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…15a4backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 45c | 200$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x124f…0deabacked No | 25c | 195.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 26c | 178.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 67c | 177.93$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…1618backed No | 68c | 165.3$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 80c | 159.28$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…bce9backed Yes | 38c | 158.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 26c | 152.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed No | 32c | 150.34$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4e…9e0bbacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 144.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 23c | 144$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.88 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 40c | 142.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.65 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed No | 76c | 125.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed No | 77c | 125$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…4d28backed No | 67c | 120.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 38c | 120$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 53c | 118.63$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.22 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…401abacked No | 23c | 116.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc25…fa93backed No | 73c | 107.7$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 24c | 105.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ce…0026backed Yes | 30c | 103.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 29c | 103.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 64c | 102.83$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 26c | 102.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 102.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…faa6backed No | 25c | 100.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563a…f578backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -82%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…a251backed No | 68c | 93.17$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 76c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef93…9f0dbacked Yes | 32c | 84.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…ccd5backed Yes | 32c | 80.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 76c | 79.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…a71dbacked No | 77c | 78.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.