Wallet 0x7d1b…e75c
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x7d1bb9f000e5fce13db3a0927b64aa38e69de75c
Rebuilt .
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked . We read the wallets we follow in rotation; the one we have gone longest without asking about was asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 74
- What they are worth now
- $18,531
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 17
bought for $17,994
worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 74, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?backed Yes | 3,842shares | 93c | 99c | $3,806 |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?backed Yes | 1,907shares | 75c | 98c | $1,859 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?backed No | 2,204shares | 79c | 83c | $1,829 |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?backed No | 1,581shares | 80c | 85c | $1,336 |
| Market 0xcd5f…0474backed outcome 1 | 870.77shares | 88c | 97c | $846 |
| Does Ox Alpha belong to Zhipu AI (Z.ai)?backed Yes | 762.26shares | 92c | 94c | $715 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?backed Yes | 777.59shares | 70c | 73c | $564 |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?backed No | 567.18shares | 93c | 97c | $551 |
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?backed Yes | 1,848shares | 28c | 28c | $517 |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?backed No | 523.55shares | 87c | 96c | $501 |
Paid is Polymarket’s own average price over what the wallet still holds — it is not the entry price TailMyPicks derives for a scored pick, which is the volume-weighted average of the buys on the side it picked. Now is what the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last catalogue refresh. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not resolved and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 17. These are markets that have already resolved: the money is sitting there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open convictions, which is why they are not in the figures above.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · resolved | 8,563shares | 25c | $0 | Counted |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?backed Yes · resolved | 6,992shares | 13c | $0 | Counted |
| Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · resolved | 3,578shares | 6c | $0 | Counted |
| Market 0x47a3…a66fbacked outcome 0 | 3,163shares | 0c | $0 | Not ingested |
| Market 0x4bc9…3067backed outcome 0 | 3,007shares | 23c | $0 | Not ingested |
Do these count towards the record above? 3 do — the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table below. 2 are not in the published record at all — TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either it has yet to be ingested, or nothing anybody held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record below never add up. What this wallet is holding on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks has scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways — the record covers markets that have already resolved and been graded, these figures cover money that is still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
Summary
- Qualified picks
- 95
- Categories scored
- 6
- Categories below 50
- 2
Best Category: Ukraine, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).
Best Category Ukraine at 62 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.
What is a Tail Score?
A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.
The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.
The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.
Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.
Record by Category
Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.
| Category | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Ukraine — the 37 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| AIlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AI — the 36 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +149.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Music — the 13 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this rowEvery qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.
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vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.