Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb6e02d1b77e26964331305ca9f12da8c6f676e1efe893372485425becbed223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 30c | 4,488$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.24 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 69c | 3,833$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.37 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 15c | 3,567$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.21 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 58c | 3,511$2,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.7 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 44c | 3,117$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed No | 71c | 2,927$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 32c | 2,506$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.29 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 52c | 2,179$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.4 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…7ba2backed Yes | 52c | 2,150$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…5d80backed No | 72c | 2,146$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.82 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed Yes | 23c | 2,100$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 78c | 1,819$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…34aebacked Yes | 19c | 1,804$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed No | 79c | 1,732$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.8 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed No | 72c | 1,613$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.21 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c84…2c7ebacked No | 70c | 1,602$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d53…d5aabacked Yes | 25c | 1,539$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 26c | 1,506$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.82 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 63c | 1,410$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.68 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe443…c065backed No | 63c | 1,335$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.69 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed Yes | 38c | 1,256$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed No | 60c | 1,200$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x964d…5194backed No | 68c | 1,196$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 46c | 1,157$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.72 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…cee4backed Yes | 13c | 1,141$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe967…1ce3backed Yes | 48c | 1,136$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…f8d4backed Yes | 11c | 1,125$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…bc8ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,087$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 58c | 906.88$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 30c | 851.67$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.07 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…63ccbacked No | 72c | 754.69$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.71 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…b93cbacked Yes | 40c | 745.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 3c | 697.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 11c | 695.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed14…bebcbacked No | 72c | 632.58$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 63c | 588.08$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.59 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 65c | 542.28$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.83 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 14c | 499.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked No | 63c | 474.34$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf3…fc71backed Yes | 23c | 449.58$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 56c | 440.66$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 60c | 439.09$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed No | 65c | 438.68$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…88cabacked No | 74c | 438.19$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…559fbacked No | 74c | 429$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 32c | 400$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4463…f3d0backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 73c | 396.02$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b3…cfd0backed Yes | 6c | 390.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 50c | 389.79$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.24 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…7901backed Yes | 13c | 381.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 43c | 372.02$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 79c | 367.24$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 28c | 366.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 58c | 361.26$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.94 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 43c | 335.27$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.6 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed No | 41c | 330$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.2 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea30…83debacked Yes | 6c | 327.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…6a11backed Yes | 33c | 323.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 27c | 320.81$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.03 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…02b8backed Yes | 31c | 319.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98fe…a984backed Yes | 32c | 314.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 31c | 311.25$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…d3b3backed Yes | 6c | 301.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 35c | 300.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…fc9abacked Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1284…9b8abacked Yes | 25c | 294.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc6…52c6backed No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed No | 78c | 291.55$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 47c | 262.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…5eb4backed No | 78c | 254.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 78c | 252.78$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf853…21d0backed No | 79c | 246.23$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0b…d661backed No | 69c | 221.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…31e2backed No | 69c | 217.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed No | 77c | 200.92$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…1d05backed Yes | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa995…1be0backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 68c | 199.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…1306backed Yes | 44c | 190$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…3e18backed Yes | 26c | 189.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes | 32c | 189.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 42c | 185.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed No | 65c | 183.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 30c | 169.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dba…2ac5backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa5…8365backed Yes | 8c | 161.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 71c | 158.57$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd2…1e2fbacked No | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…77b2backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.