TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,574
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,574 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe738…df65backed Yes30c4,488$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.246647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No69c3,833$2,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.373461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes15c3,567$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.215722.8%13 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No58c3,511$2,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.714750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes44c3,117$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.952250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x768b…de48backed No71c2,927$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.686100%6 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed Yes32c2,506$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.298549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No52c2,179$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3910…7ba2backed Yes52c2,150$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8966…5d80backed No72c2,146$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.821827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-46.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9290…3452backed Yes23c2,100$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.992850%14 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed No78c1,819$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.381540%6 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d72…34aebacked Yes19c1,804$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.46742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed No79c1,732$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.84535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd222…fe42backed No72c1,613$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.21977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick58cpaid+62.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c84…2c7ebacked No70c1,602$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4791656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d53…d5aabacked Yes25c1,539$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes26c1,506$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.8223435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47dc…c27ebacked No63c1,410$893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.682748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe443…c065backed No63c1,335$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.697548%36 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb94a…a623backed Yes38c1,256$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4743043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.514920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe50…6eb6backed No60c1,200$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4855352.8%28 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+26.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x964d…5194backed No68c1,196$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.541060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddae…5d62backed Yes46c1,157$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.723243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41d0…cee4backed Yes13c1,141$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe967…1ce3backed Yes48c1,136$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d56…f8d4backed Yes11c1,125$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.24825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7a…bc8ebacked Yes35c1,087$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.8825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked No58c906.88$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.891163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes30c851.67$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.0712547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8572…63ccbacked No72c754.69$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.711752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c4…b93cbacked Yes40c745.11$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-32.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes3c697.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.111717.6%3 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes11c695.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.958615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed14…bebcbacked No72c632.58$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.411464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+43.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No63c588.08$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.5911050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e93…353fbacked No65c542.28$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.831540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed No78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102564%16 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes14c499.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc7c…3d8cbacked No63c474.34$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.34875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9bf3…fc71backed Yes23c449.58$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.340%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No56c440.66$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.0415855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x85cb…6603backed Yes60c439.09$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.43740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-32.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x935a…6235backed No65c438.68$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.684447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d2c…88cabacked No74c438.19$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.791485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42c1…559fbacked No74c429$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.75650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes32c400$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1304746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4463…f3d0backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No73c396.02$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.113743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b3…cfd0backed Yes6c390.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.91233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+45.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed Yes50c389.79$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.245561.8%34 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6111…7901backed Yes13c381.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes43c372.02$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed No79c367.24$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6814150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes28c366.67$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10114147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No58c361.26$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.946443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes43c335.27$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.62313%3 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-70.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8fce…2566backed No41c330$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.23759.5%22 W · 15 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+23.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xea30…83debacked Yes6c327.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57e…6a11backed Yes33c323.06$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.130%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed Yes27c320.81$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.035757.9%33 W · 24 L+10.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+43.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xba19…02b8backed Yes31c319.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98fe…a984backed Yes32c314.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes31c311.25$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2615451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5a7b…d3b3backed Yes6c301.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes35c300.14$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.34445.5%20 W · 24 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1082540%10 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019c…fc9abacked Yes29c300$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1284…9b8abacked Yes25c294.51$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc6…52c6backed No68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.121250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b90…1d17backed No78c291.55$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.752245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c5…7a13backed No71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.691855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes47c262.11$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.192615.4%4 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1156…5eb4backed No78c254.81$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.811662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5c…55dfbacked No78c252.78$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.483560%21 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf853…21d0backed No79c246.23$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.482661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e0b…d661backed No69c221.64$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.64887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+114.9%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xd776…31e2backed No69c217.39$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+57.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x183a…d514backed No77c200.92$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0e1…1d05backed Yes51c200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa995…1be0backed No68c200$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes38c199.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No68c199.98$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9911741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9690…1306backed Yes44c190$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0190…3e18backed Yes26c189.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…ee32backed Yes32c189.38$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-63.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes42c185.86$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-70.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed No65c183.94$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.943865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes30c169.79$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513228.1%9 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dba…2ac5backed Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa5…8365backed Yes8c161.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes44c160$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.681136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No71c158.57$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.944475%33 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed Yes70c150$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedd2…1e2fbacked No69c150$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.62470.8%17 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9889…77b2backed Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.