Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x770e79e7a86b86c1a4d62498c1d0b434d3f885e51e9ae2682cc6aebd7a12de84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 11c | 16,703$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 1c | 13,600$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.75 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,409$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.27 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 18c | 5,494$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.03 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 11c | 5,280$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.81 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4cd5backed Yes | 23c | 4,997$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d6…86fdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,465$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,975$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.66 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,607$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 8c | 2,508$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 2,160$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,122$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.81 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed Yes | 11c | 1,850$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.6wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb17b…f094backed Yes | 6c | 1,692$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 8c | 1,436$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 5c | 1,325$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300a…f137backed Yes | 13c | 1,080$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,064$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,063$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…f756backed No | 79c | 1,048$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.74 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 18c | 999.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4fafbacked Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…f325backed Yes | 14c | 738.75$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 5c | 719.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 38c | 658.07$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cd…2e45backed Yes | 15c | 656.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 7c | 653.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a50…428ebacked Yes | 2c | 623.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 16c | 613.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…0136backed Yes | 8c | 597.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes | 7c | 584.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…e606backed Yes | 8c | 562.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 21c | 508.89$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 7c | 471$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…43f7backed Yes | 4c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da0…1707backed Yes | 8c | 381.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9931…874ebacked Yes | 7c | 376$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…eb86backed Yes | 6c | 350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…b6e1backed Yes | 14c | 285.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…5025backed Yes | 9c | 255.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 79c | 254.1$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…ef06backed Yes | 12c | 252.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed Yes | 17c | 250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0629…b513backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccd3…af17backed Yes | 21c | 234$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +4,891.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…06c4backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 17c | 202.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3a…258ebacked Yes | 11c | 177.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…97d1backed Yes | 9c | 174.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…22aebacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 151$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e39…7948backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…84e0backed Yes | 13c | 148.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 61c | 136.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38de…5e07backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3165…ce2abacked Yes | 15c | 131.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…a1aebacked Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 19c | 126.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…93afbacked Yes | 19c | 116.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…864bbacked Yes | 16c | 114.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e2…1546backed No | 77c | 106.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c2…b2a9backed Yes | 32c | 105.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x638d…56ffbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1827…d5a8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb495…6fbabacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…a2bcbacked Yes | 26c | 99.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc835…d92abacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…9cc3backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…9ac6backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8976…29c5backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414d…0223backed Yes | 23c | 69.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…a4b9backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x184e…3a48backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…d35bbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6651…49b2backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…b7bfbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 79c | 23.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 21?this page
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 15?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 14?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.